What Happened
- A peer-reviewed study published in the journal One Earth, led by Queen Mary University of London in collaboration with Lancaster University, the Climate and Community Project, and the Conflict and Environment Observatory, estimated that the Israel-Gaza conflict generated approximately 33 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) emissions.
- The 33 million tonnes figure is equivalent to Jordan's total annual emissions, the annual output of 7.6 million petrol vehicles, or the carbon absorbed by 33.1 million acres of forest annually.
- Direct military operations (artillery, rockets, military equipment) accounted for more than 1.3 million tonnes of CO₂e; the remainder came from infrastructure destruction and reconstruction.
- Researchers emphasised that military emissions are "largely excluded from international climate reporting frameworks," rendering warfare's environmental impact invisible in global climate accounting.
- The study called for improved transparency through UNFCCC mechanisms and mandatory military emissions reporting.
Static Topic Bridges
Military Emissions and the UNFCCC Reporting Gap
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in 1992 and entering into force in 1994, is the foundational international treaty for addressing climate change. The subsequent Kyoto Protocol (1997) and Paris Agreement (2015) operationalised emissions reduction targets. However, a critical loophole exists: under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, military emissions were exempted from mandatory reporting, and the Paris Agreement made military emissions reporting entirely voluntary.
- The UNFCCC currently requires nations to report only military fuel use data, which excludes supply chain emissions, weapons manufacturing, and conflict-related destruction.
- Expert estimates attribute approximately 5.5% of global GHG emissions to militaries worldwide — if militaries were a country, they would rank as the fifth-largest emitter globally, ahead of Russia.
- The "Military Emissions Gap" — the systematic undercounting of defence-related GHG output — is a recognised blind spot in global climate governance.
- India's military emissions are also not separately disaggregated in its UNFCCC submissions; this is a global norm.
- COP30 (Belém, Brazil, November 2025) saw advocacy groups push for mandatory military emissions reporting, with limited formal progress.
Connection to this news: The Israel-Gaza study quantifies what the UNFCCC system renders invisible — the enormous climate cost of armed conflict — and strengthens the case for closing the military emissions loophole in international climate law.
Environmental Consequences of Armed Conflict
Armed conflict causes environmental destruction through multiple channels: bombing of industrial facilities releases toxic pollutants, burning infrastructure emits CO₂ and particulates, fuel combustion by military vehicles and aircraft adds GHGs, and post-conflict reconstruction requires massive energy-intensive material use. International humanitarian law (IHL) — especially Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions (1977) — prohibits methods of warfare that cause "widespread, long-term and severe damage" to the environment.
- Article 35(3) and Article 55 of Additional Protocol I (1977) to the Geneva Conventions prohibit attacks on the natural environment intended as a reprisal or causing severe ecological damage.
- The UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) has a "Post-Conflict and Disaster Management Branch" that assesses environmental damage from conflicts.
- The Gulf War (1990–91) oil fires in Kuwait released an estimated 500 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent — a historical precedent for conflict-induced climate emissions.
- The concept of "ecocide" — deliberate large-scale environmental destruction — is being considered for inclusion in international criminal law by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Connection to this news: The One Earth study places the Israel-Gaza conflict in the tradition of measuring conflict-related environmental damage, reinforcing calls to make ecocide an international crime and to include conflict emissions in climate accounting.
Carbon Accounting and Climate Transparency Mechanisms
Accurate GHG accounting is the foundation of effective climate policy. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) provides the scientific guidelines (IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories) that countries use to compile national inventories submitted to the UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement's "Enhanced Transparency Framework" (ETF), which took effect in 2024, requires all parties to submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) using common tabular formats.
- National GHG inventories are submitted to the UNFCCC in "national communications" and "biennial reports"; military data is routinely absent or aggregated under general "energy" or "transport" categories.
- The Paris Agreement's ETF applies a "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle — developing nations face lighter reporting requirements, but the military exemption applies universally.
- India's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, updated 2022) targets: reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 (vs 2005), achieve 50% cumulative electric power from non-fossil sources by 2030, and create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes through forests and trees.
- India has not submitted separate military emissions data in its UNFCCC filings.
Connection to this news: The study exposes how military-generated emissions — among the largest and fastest-growing sources of global GHG output — remain outside both national and international accountability structures, undermining the integrity of Paris Agreement targets.
Conflict, Displacement, and Climate Refugees
Armed conflict and climate change interact synergistically to drive displacement. The UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees) recognises "climate refugees" — people displaced by climate-related disasters — as a growing category, though they currently lack formal legal status under the 1951 Refugee Convention.
- The 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol define a refugee as a person fleeing persecution on grounds of race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership of a social group — climate displacement is not included.
- In 2022, the UNHCR published guidelines recognising that climate change can amplify persecution-related displacement, but no binding legal status for "climate refugees" exists.
- The Gaza conflict has produced one of the largest displacement crises in the Middle East since 1948, and the conflict's emissions add to an already warming regional climate.
Connection to this news: The compounding effect of conflict emissions and climate-driven displacement highlights the need for integrating conflict-environment linkages into both humanitarian law and climate policy frameworks.
Key Facts & Data
- Total estimated emissions from Israel-Gaza conflict: ~33 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent
- Equivalent to: Jordan's total 2024 annual emissions; 7.6 million petrol vehicles/year; 33.1 million acres of forest carbon absorption/year
- Direct military operations: >1.3 million tonnes CO₂e
- Lead institution: Queen Mary University of London; published in One Earth
- Military emissions globally: estimated ~5.5% of global GHG emissions (if a country, 5th largest emitter)
- Kyoto Protocol (1997): exempted military emissions from mandatory UNFCCC reporting
- Paris Agreement (2015): military emissions reporting is voluntary
- UNFCCC: established 1992, entered into force 1994
- India's updated NDC (2022): 45% emissions intensity reduction vs 2005 by 2030; 50% non-fossil electricity by 2030