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El Nino may hit India's monsoon, hotter months ahead, says WMO

March 10, 2026 5 min read Environment & Ecology Geography GS Paper 1 GS Paper 3
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What Happened

  • The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that an emerging El Niño could impact India's 2026 southwest monsoon and contribute to above-normal temperatures in the months ahead.
  • The ongoing La Niña phase is breaking down across the tropical Pacific, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely by early spring 2026.
  • Forecasts from multiple agencies indicate El Niño could develop between May and July 2026, potentially intensifying mid-monsoon, raising the risk of below-normal rainfall over India.
  • An evolving El Niño — one that develops during the monsoon season rather than before it — carries approximately a 60% probability of causing below-normal rainfall and can disrupt the spatial and temporal distribution of rain.
  • The development could push global average temperatures close to or above the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels, alongside heightened risk of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.

Static Topic Bridges

ENSO — Mechanism and the El Niño Phenomenon

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic climate pattern involving fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in atmospheric pressure (the Southern Oscillation). During El Niño, anomalously warm SSTs develop in the central-eastern Pacific, weakening the Walker Circulation — the east-to-west trade winds across the equatorial Pacific.

  • ENSO has three phases: El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cool phase), and ENSO-Neutral.
  • El Niño events typically recur every 2–7 years and last 9–12 months.
  • The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) — difference in atmospheric pressure between Tahiti and Darwin — is the primary indicator: a sustained negative SOI signals El Niño.
  • During El Niño, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, suppressing convective rainfall over South Asia and enhancing it over the eastern Pacific.
  • The 2015–16 El Niño was one of the strongest on record; India recorded a deficient monsoon (below 86% of Long Period Average) in both 2014 and 2015.

Connection to this news: The WMO's 2026 alert is significant precisely because of the timing — an El Niño developing mid-monsoon is more damaging than one already in place before the monsoon sets in, as forecast models can adjust less effectively when the forcing evolves during the season.

Indian Ocean Dipole — Buffer Against El Niño

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean defined by the difference in SST between the western pole (Arabian Sea) and the eastern pole (south of Indonesia). A positive IOD — warmer western Indian Ocean, cooler eastern Indian Ocean — generates enhanced moisture flow toward South Asia, partially offsetting El Niño's suppressive effect on Indian monsoon rainfall.

  • IOD develops between April–May and peaks in October; it is an independent mode of variability from ENSO but correlated with it.
  • In years with simultaneous El Niño and positive IOD (e.g., 1983, 1994, 1997), India received near-normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall despite El Niño.
  • A negative IOD compounds El Niño's adverse impact on Indian rainfall.
  • IOD is measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), defined as the difference in SST anomaly between the western (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and eastern (90°E–110°E, 10°S–0°N) poles.

Connection to this news: Whether India escapes a deficient monsoon in 2026 depends partly on whether a positive IOD develops to counteract El Niño — a key variable that forecasters will track through April–May 2026. The WMO warning essentially puts policymakers on notice to prepare contingency plans for agricultural and water management.

Southwest Monsoon and India's Agricultural Economy

India's southwest monsoon (June–September) delivers approximately 70–75% of the country's total annual rainfall and is the backbone of Indian agriculture, particularly for kharif crops (paddy, maize, pulses, oilseeds, cotton). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines a "normal" monsoon as rainfall within ±10% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm.

  • A deficient monsoon (below 90% of LPA) typically triggers crop failures, reservoir shortfalls, and inflation in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals.
  • India's agricultural sector contributes ~17–18% of GDP and employs ~45% of the workforce — making monsoon variability a macroeconomic and food security issue.
  • Drip irrigation coverage in India is ~11 million hectares (as of recent estimates) — still a small fraction of total cultivated area (~140 million hectares), leaving most cultivation rain-dependent.
  • The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issues drought management guidelines; state-level Crop Insurance Scheme (PM-FASAL Bima Yojana) provides partial risk transfer to farmers.
  • El Niño years 2002 and 2009 saw Indian monsoon deficits of 19% and 22% respectively, causing severe agricultural distress.

Connection to this news: An El Niño developing in mid-2026 will directly test India's drought preparedness architecture, reservoir management, and crop insurance mechanisms — all areas that feature in GS3 disaster management and agricultural policy.

Global Warming and the 1.5°C Threshold

The Paris Agreement (2015) set a global goal of limiting average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The year 2023–24 was the first 12-month period to breach the 1.5°C threshold on a sustained basis, partly driven by a strong El Niño. A returning El Niño in 2026, layered on top of anthropogenic warming, could push records further.

  • Pre-industrial baseline: average global temperature of the period 1850–1900.
  • The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021–2022) concluded that 1.5°C of warming is likely to be reached as early as the 2030s under current emission trajectories.
  • El Niño events add approximately 0.1–0.2°C to global mean temperature anomaly in the year following onset.
  • India's mean annual temperature has increased by approximately 0.7°C over 1901–2018 (per IMD assessment), with a projected increase of 2.4–4.4°C by 2100 under high-emission scenarios.
  • India ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2016 and submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2022, targeting 45% emissions intensity reduction by 2030 vs 2005 baseline.

Connection to this news: The WMO's forecast of temperatures approaching or exceeding 1.5°C with this potential El Niño directly links to India's climate commitments, heatwave vulnerability, and the long-term trajectory of monsoon reliability under climate change.

Key Facts & Data

  • WMO warning: La Niña breaking down; El Niño possible May–July 2026, could strengthen mid-monsoon
  • Evolving El Niño risk: ~60% probability of below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall
  • ENSO cycle: recurs every 2–7 years; SOI (Tahiti–Darwin pressure difference) is key indicator
  • IMD "normal" monsoon: ±10% of LPA (87 cm, June–September)
  • Deficient monsoon: below 90% of LPA — impacts kharif crops (paddy, maize, pulses, cotton)
  • Significant El Niño–deficit years in India: 2002 (−19%), 2009 (−22%), 2014–15
  • IOD positive phase offsets El Niño — critical buffer for India in 1983, 1994, 1997
  • Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold: likely breached on sustained basis 2023–24
  • India's temperature rise: ~0.7°C over 1901–2018; projected 2.4–4.4°C by 2100 (high emissions)
  • India's updated NDCs (2022): 45% emissions intensity reduction by 2030 vs 2005