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UN flags possible El Nino comeback this year as neutral conditions emerge

March 03, 2026 5 min read Environment & Ecology Geography GS1 (Physical Geography Climatology) GS3 (Environment Agriculture)
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What Happened

  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued an update on March 3, 2026 stating that the recent weak La Nina event is fading and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail until at least July 2026.
  • WMO Global Producing Centres forecast a 60% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2026, rising to 70% probability during April-June 2026.
  • Between May and July 2026, El Nino probability rises to approximately 40% — a significant increase from the earlier 10% estimate, driven by increasing subsurface heat accumulation in the central Pacific Ocean.
  • For March-May 2026, there is a global signal for above-average land surface temperatures, consistent with the ongoing climate change background warming trend.
  • The WMO flagged that if El Nino emerges in the second half of 2026, it could affect the 2026 southwest monsoon season — with implications for Indian agriculture and food security.

Static Topic Bridges

ENSO: El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation

ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is a naturally recurring climate pattern driven by variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has three phases: El Nino (warming of the central and eastern Pacific), La Nina (cooling), and ENSO-neutral (near-average temperatures). The Southern Oscillation refers to the associated atmospheric pressure seesaw between the eastern and western Pacific, measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

  • El Nino is declared when SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region (central tropical Pacific) exceed the 30-year average by 0.5°C for at least 5 consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
  • Bjerknes feedback: the core positive feedback loop — warm Pacific SSTs weaken trade winds → warm water shifts east → further SST rise → further weakening of winds.
  • El Nino events typically occur every 2-7 years and last 9-12 months.
  • La Nina follows many El Nino events and is characterized by stronger-than-normal trade winds and cool eastern Pacific SSTs.
  • The Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific — weakens during El Nino and strengthens during La Nina.
  • WMO monitors ENSO through a global network of ocean buoys, weather stations, and satellite observations.

Connection to this news: The WMO's March 2026 bulletin indicates the transition from a fading La Nina through an ENSO-neutral phase, with subsurface heat buildup suggesting El Nino could emerge by mid-2026 — exactly the timeframe when the Indian southwest monsoon is most sensitive to Pacific SST anomalies.

El Nino's Impact on the Indian Monsoon and Agriculture

India receives approximately 75-80% of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon (June-September). The Indian monsoon is fundamentally driven by the differential heating of land and sea, but it is significantly modulated by large-scale climate drivers — most importantly ENSO. El Nino events are statistically associated with weaker Indian monsoons, below-normal rainfall, and increased drought probability. The relationship is strong but not deterministic — the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partially counteract El Nino's suppressing effect.

  • Historical pattern: Out of all El Nino years, approximately 60% coincide with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall (below 90% of Long Period Average).
  • The 2023 El Nino (June 2023-April 2024) reduced kharif rice production by an estimated 3.79% to 106.31 million tonnes (from 110.5 MT in 2022-23).
  • A deficit monsoon triggers inflation in food staples: rice, pulses, vegetables, and oilseeds — disproportionately affecting rural incomes and urban poor.
  • India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a 50-year Long Period Average (LPA) of 88 cm as the baseline; rainfall below 90% LPA is classified as deficient.
  • A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — warmer western Indian Ocean relative to the eastern end — can offset El Nino's drying influence on the Indian subcontinent.
  • Skymet Weather has flagged a rising risk of a sub-par monsoon in 2026 if El Nino materializes by May-June.

Connection to this news: The WMO's 40% El Nino probability for the May-July 2026 window means there is a meaningful risk of monsoon disruption at the very start of the 2026 kharif season — a critical concern for food security, agricultural credit, and rural demand in the Indian economy.

Global Warming and Changing ENSO Patterns

Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity, and predictability of ENSO events. Studies suggest that the proportion of extreme El Nino events (causing very strong rainfall anomalies) has doubled in recent decades. Additionally, warming of the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific warm pool is changing the relationship between Pacific SST anomalies and Indian monsoon rainfall, making historical statistical correlations less reliable.

  • The 2015-16 El Nino was one of the three strongest on record, contributing to the 2016 global temperature record.
  • The 2023-24 El Nino overlaid a background climate warming trend, contributing to 2024 being confirmed as the warmest year ever recorded globally.
  • IPCC AR6 warns that under a 1.5°C warming scenario, extreme El Nino and La Nina events will become more frequent, increasing the unpredictability of regional rainfall.
  • The warming of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is strengthening the positive feedback between ocean and atmosphere, potentially extending ENSO cycles.
  • India's National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) recognizes increased ENSO-driven climate variability as a key adaptation challenge for agriculture and water resources.

Connection to this news: The rapid transition from La Nina to potential El Nino within a single calendar year — against a backdrop of rising Pacific subsurface heat — is consistent with projections of increased ENSO variability under climate change, making this WMO bulletin directly relevant to both climate science and adaptation policy.

Key Facts & Data

  • WMO update date: March 3, 2026
  • Current ENSO phase: Transitioning from weak La Nina to ENSO-neutral
  • ENSO-neutral probability: 60% for March-May 2026; 70% for April-June 2026
  • El Nino emergence probability: ~40% for May-July 2026 window
  • Trigger: Increasing subsurface warm water accumulation in central Pacific
  • India monsoon baseline: 88 cm Long Period Average (LPA); below 90% = deficient
  • Historical El Nino-monsoon link: ~60% of El Nino years see below-normal Indian monsoon
  • 2023-24 El Nino impact: kharif rice output fell ~3.79%, to 106.31 million tonnes
  • Key moderating factor: Indian Ocean Dipole (positive phase can counteract El Nino)
  • WMO body: World Meteorological Organization — UN specialized agency for meteorology, climatology, hydrology
  • ENSO monitoring: Nino 3.4 region; SST anomaly threshold: +0.5°C for 5 consecutive three-month periods = El Nino declaration