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High chances of El Niño after July, says World Meteorological Organization

March 03, 2026 5 min read Environment & Ecology Geography GS1 (Geography Climate) GS3 (Agriculture Disaster Management)
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What Happened

  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of high chances of an El Niño developing after July 2026, as the current weak La Niña phase transitions through ENSO-neutral conditions.
  • Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) indicate that both oceanic and atmospheric signals are aligning for a possible strong El Niño event during the 2026 monsoon season.
  • The Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APEC) estimates El Niño conditions could emerge by late July 2026, with clearer confirmation expected by May 2026.
  • Some models project a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing concurrently, which could partially offset El Niño's negative effect on India's monsoon.
  • If El Niño develops as forecast, India faces risks of below-normal monsoon rainfall, intense heatwaves through pre-monsoon months, and disruption to Kharif crop cultivation.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — Mechanism and Classification

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon driven by periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in atmospheric pressure (the Southern Oscillation). In neutral conditions, trade winds push warm water westward, maintaining warm SST in the western Pacific and cooler water in the east. During El Niño, trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastward — suppressing convection over the Indo-Pacific region, which normally fuels the South Asian monsoon. ENSO events typically follow a 2–7 year cycle. El Niño intensity is measured using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): SST anomalies above +0.5°C for five consecutive 3-month periods constitute an El Niño event; above +1.5°C is "strong."

  • The 2015–16 El Niño was one of the three strongest on record, contributing to a severe monsoon deficit in India (deficient rainfall in 2015).
  • Fourteen of India's fifteen historically deficient monsoon years (below 90% of Long Period Average) have occurred in El Niño years.
  • ENSO monitoring is conducted by NOAA (USA), WMO, IMD, and APCC. India's IMD issues ENSO outlook bulletins as part of its seasonal monsoon forecast.
  • La Niña has the opposite effect: enhanced convection over the Indo-Pacific, stronger monsoon, and increased risk of flooding in South and Southeast Asia.
  • The 2022 La Niña contributed to record flooding across Pakistan and parts of India.

Connection to this news: The WMO's El Niño forecast for July 2026 directly affects India's monsoon outlook, agricultural planning, and drought preparedness — making ENSO science a recurring UPSC Prelims topic and a Mains theme for agriculture, water resources, and disaster management.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — India's Monsoon Moderator

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean characterised by differences in sea surface temperatures between the western Indian Ocean (off East Africa) and the eastern Indian Ocean (off Indonesia). A positive IOD — warm anomaly in the west, cool anomaly in the east — enhances moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent and tends to boost monsoon rainfall. A negative IOD does the opposite. Crucially, IOD can partially neutralise the suppressive effect of El Niño on the Indian monsoon: several El Niño years (1983, 1994, 1997) saw normal or above-normal monsoon rainfall in India because concurrent positive IOD events offset ENSO's drying influence. The IMD weights IOD signals alongside ENSO in its seasonal forecast models.

  • IOD is measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI): difference in SST anomalies between western (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and eastern (90°E–110°E, 10°S–0°S) Indian Ocean boxes.
  • The extreme positive IOD of 2019 helped India record above-normal monsoon rainfall despite weak El Niño conditions.
  • IOD events are less predictable than ENSO beyond a 3–4 month lead time — a major uncertainty in India's monsoon forecasting.
  • Models for 2026 suggest a possible positive IOD developing during the monsoon season, which could limit damage from El Niño if it materialises.
  • The IOD also affects East Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia — a positive IOD is associated with severe droughts in Australia and Indonesia.

Connection to this news: The potential simultaneous occurrence of El Niño and positive IOD in 2026 represents a classic case of competing climate forcings on the Indian monsoon — a nuanced topic for UPSC Mains questions on climate systems and agricultural risk.

Monsoon and Indian Agriculture — Vulnerability and Adaptation

India's Southwest Monsoon (June–September) delivers approximately 70–90% of annual rainfall to most of the country and is the lifeline of its agricultural economy, particularly for Kharif crops (rice, cotton, maize, groundnut, soybean) sown in June–July. Approximately 52% of India's net sown area remains rain-fed, with no access to irrigation, making these regions acutely vulnerable to monsoon deficits. A 10% deficit in monsoon rainfall can reduce agricultural GDP growth by 2–3% according to NITI Aayog estimates. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues long-range monsoon forecasts in April and May, with an update in June — the 2026 forecasts will be closely watched given the emerging El Niño signal.

  • India's Long Period Average (LPA) for southwest monsoon rainfall: 87 cm (1971–2020 average).
  • IMD classifies monsoon seasons: Normal (96–104% LPA), Deficient (<90% LPA), Excess (>110% LPA).
  • El Niño years with deficient monsoon: 1987, 2002, 2009, 2014 are the clearest recent examples.
  • The PM-AASHA (Price Support Scheme) and PM Fasal Bima Yojana (crop insurance) are key instruments to protect farmers from weather-driven income shocks.
  • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) drought management guidelines require district-level contingency crop planning — key for 2026 given the El Niño warning.
  • IMD's 2026 April forecast is expected to incorporate updated ENSO guidance as a key input.

Connection to this news: The WMO El Niño warning for July 2026 is a critical lead indicator for India's agricultural and disaster management planning — directly actionable for policy responses at IMD, Ministry of Agriculture, and state governments.

Key Facts & Data

  • WMO forecast: high probability of El Niño developing after July 2026 as La Niña transitions through ENSO-neutral.
  • ECMWF and NCEP models indicate possibility of a strong El Niño during the 2026 monsoon season.
  • Positive IOD may develop concurrently — could partially offset El Niño's monsoon impact.
  • India's Long Period Average (LPA) monsoon: 87 cm; deficient = below 90% LPA.
  • 14 of India's 15 historically deficient monsoon years coincided with El Niño.
  • El Niño strength measured by Oceanic Niño Index (ONI); +0.5°C anomaly = El Niño; +1.5°C = strong.
  • 2015–16 El Niño: one of three strongest on record; India monsoon 2015: 86% of LPA (deficient).
  • IMD issues long-range monsoon forecasts: April (initial), May (update), June (further update).
  • India's rain-fed agriculture: ~52% of net sown area; a 10% rainfall deficit = 2–3% agricultural GDP fall.