What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast on April 13, 2026, predicting below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for the 2026 season.
- Seasonal rainfall is projected at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the "below normal" category (90–95% of LPA).
- The probability of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) stands at 35% — more than double the historical baseline of 16%.
- El Niño conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific during the second half of the monsoon season (August–September) are identified as the primary driver of suppressed rainfall.
- Approximately 60% of India's farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif season, raising concerns for crop output and rural demand.
Static Topic Bridges
The Southwest Monsoon Mechanism and Long Period Average
The southwest (or Indian summer) monsoon is a large-scale seasonal wind reversal driven by differential heating between the Indian landmass and the Indian Ocean. Between June and September, moisture-laden winds blow from the southwest, delivering about 75% of India's annual rainfall. The Long Period Average (LPA) is the 50-year benchmark used to classify monsoon performance; IMD currently uses the 1971–2020 LPA of 868.6 mm for the country as a whole.
- IMD classifies rainfall as: excess (>104% LPA), normal (96–104%), below normal (90–95%), deficient (80–89%), and large deficient (<80%).
- The monsoon onset is typically declared at Thiruvananthapuram around June 1 and reaches northwest India by mid-July.
- IMD issues two forecasts: a first long-range forecast in April and an updated forecast in late May, with phase-two forecasts for regional distributions.
- The 2026 LPA is 868.6 mm; 92% of this equals approximately 799 mm of rainfall.
Connection to this news: The 2026 forecast of 92% LPA falls squarely in the "below normal" band, and the 35% probability of outright deficiency signals an elevated drought risk that will shape Kharif sowing decisions across 120 million hectares.
El Niño and Its Impact on the Indian Monsoon
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterised by anomalous warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It weakens the Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric loop over the Pacific — and consequently suppresses monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent by reducing moisture flux and destabilising the thermal gradient between land and sea.
- El Niño years have historically produced below-normal monsoon rainfall in India about 60% of the time; however, some El Niño years (e.g., 1997, 2015) still produced near-normal rain due to compensating factors.
- ENSO is monitored using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a 3-month running average of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region.
- The second half of the monsoon (August–September) is most vulnerable because that is when El Niño typically peaks.
- Kharif crops like paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton are at their most water-intensive stage precisely during August–September.
Connection to this news: IMD's forecast explicitly attributes the below-normal outlook to developing El Niño conditions during the second half of the season — the critical window for standing Kharif crops.
Agriculture and Food Security Implications
India's agricultural calendar is anchored to the monsoon. The Kharif season (June–November) accounts for roughly 50% of annual food grain production. Below-normal rainfall compresses soil moisture availability, affects reservoir storage for rabi irrigation, and can trigger a cascade of effects on inflation and rural purchasing power.
- India's kharif sowing covers ~120 million hectares; major crops include paddy (44 Mha), pulses (14 Mha), oilseeds (19 Mha), and coarse cereals.
- A 10% rainfall deficit can reduce foodgrain production by 4–6%, based on historical correlations.
- Inflation in pulses and vegetables is highly sensitive to monsoon performance; deficit years typically see 15–25% price spikes in these categories.
- The National Food Security Act covers 81.35 crore beneficiaries — buffer stock management becomes critical in deficit monsoon years.
Connection to this news: With rainfall projected at 92% of LPA and a 35% drought probability, Kharif 2026 output faces structural risk, likely putting pressure on MSP procurement, buffer stocks, and the CPI food inflation trajectory.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD forecast: 92% of LPA (≈799 mm), with ±5% error margin
- LPA (1971–2020): 868.6 mm
- Probability breakdown: 35% deficient | 31% below normal | 27% normal | 6% above normal | 1% excess
- Historical deficient-year probability: 16% (2026 estimate is more than double)
- Farmers dependent entirely on monsoon: ~60% of India's agricultural workforce
- Kharif sowing area: ~120 million hectares
- IMD second forecast update: expected late May 2026
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): currently neutral; positive IOD development forecast by season's end (partially offsetting El Niño impact)