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RBI keeps repo rate unchanged, predicts 6.9% GDP growth


What Happened

  • The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in its April 2026 meeting — the second consecutive pause.
  • The RBI projected GDP growth at 6.9% for FY27, down from the FY26 estimate of 7.6%, reflecting global headwinds from the West Asia conflict and elevated energy prices.
  • The CPI inflation target for FY27 was set at 4.6%, within the 2–6% tolerance band; quarterly projections are Q1: 4.0%, Q2: 4.4%, Q3: 5.2%, Q4: 4.7%.
  • Governor Malhotra noted that temporary forex measures were aimed at curbing speculation and would be reviewed as conditions stabilise.
  • The RBI also eased capital norms for banks to support credit flow to the productive sectors of the economy.

Static Topic Bridges

The MPC is a statutory body established under Section 45ZB of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, inserted by the Finance Act 2016. It is a six-member committee — three RBI officials (including the Governor as Chairperson) and three external members appointed by the Central Government. Each member has one vote; the Governor holds a casting vote in case of a tie. The MPC must meet at least four times a year and its decisions are taken by majority vote.

  • Established: 2016 (Finance Act amendment to RBI Act, 1934)
  • Primary mandate: Achieve the inflation target set by the Government (currently 4% ± 2%)
  • Meets: Bi-monthly (approximately 6 times per year)
  • Quorum: Four members

Connection to this news: The April 2026 decision to hold rates was a unanimous 6-0 vote, reflecting the committee's collective assessment that geopolitical uncertainties warranted a cautious pause rather than further easing.

Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) Framework

India adopted the Flexible Inflation Targeting framework in 2016, making price stability the primary objective of monetary policy. The CPI inflation target of 4% with a ±2% tolerance band (i.e., 2%–6%) was announced under the amended RBI Act. If average inflation exceeds the upper or falls below the lower tolerance limit for three consecutive quarters, the RBI is deemed to have failed its mandate and must explain to the government.

  • Inflation target: 4% CPI (headline), with 2%–6% tolerance band
  • Anchor: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — headline inflation
  • Flexibility: The "flexible" aspect allows the RBI to support growth provided inflation is within band
  • First introduced: 2014 (Urjit Patel Committee report); formalised by Finance Act 2016

Connection to this news: The RBI's FY27 CPI projection of 4.6% remains within the tolerance band, but the MPC flagged upside risks from elevated crude oil and a weaker rupee — justifying the hold rather than a rate cut.

Repo Rate as Monetary Policy Instrument

The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks against government securities. It is the primary policy instrument under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF). Changes in repo rate transmit to lending rates in the economy — higher repo raises borrowing costs and curbs demand (and inflation); lower repo stimulates borrowing and growth.

  • Repo rate (April 2026): 5.25%
  • Reverse repo rate: Typically 25 bps below repo (absorption of excess liquidity)
  • SDF (Standing Deposit Facility): Floor of the LAF corridor
  • MSF (Marginal Standing Facility): Ceiling of the corridor
  • Bank Rate: Equal to MSF rate; used for penal purposes

Connection to this news: The hold at 5.25% signals the MPC's intent to remain watchful — neither tightening (which could choke growth) nor easing (which could risk inflation) amid West Asia-driven energy price uncertainty.

Key Facts & Data

  • Repo rate: 5.25% (unchanged — second consecutive hold)
  • Policy stance: Neutral (unanimous)
  • FY26 GDP estimate: 7.6% (retained)
  • FY27 GDP projection: 6.9%
  • FY27 CPI inflation projection: 4.6%
  • Quarterly inflation — Q1: 4.0%, Q2: 4.4%, Q3: 5.2%, Q4: 4.7%
  • RBI crude oil assumption for FY27: $85/barrel
  • RBI rupee-dollar assumption for FY27: ₹94/USD
  • MPC meeting: April 6–8, 2026; decision on April 8, 2026