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India's wheat output pegged at record 120.21 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 2%: Ministry

March 10, 2026 5 min read Economics GS3 (Agriculture Food Security Rabi Crops MSP) GS1 (Indian Agriculture Physical Geography)
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What Happened

  • The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare released the Second Advance Estimates for 2025–26, pegging wheat output at a record 120.21 million tonnes (1,202.10 lakh metric tonnes) — a 2% increase over 117.94 million tonnes produced in 2024–25.
  • Total rabi crop production for 2025–26 is estimated at 174.51 million tonnes, up 3.16% from 169.16 million tonnes in the previous year.
  • Rice and maize production are also at record levels in the Second Advance Estimates.
  • Higher wheat area sown (approximately 2–3% more than the previous year) and favourable weather conditions during the rabi season contributed to the record estimate.
  • The MSP for wheat for 2025–26 marketing season is Rs 2,425 per quintal (Rs 150 higher than the previous year's Rs 2,275/quintal — approximately 6.6% hike).
  • The government has set a wheat procurement target of approximately 30–31 million tonnes for 2025–26, with FCI and state agencies expected to scale up operations given the bumper crop.

Static Topic Bridges

Rabi Crops, Wheat Cultivation Geography, and Agro-Climatic Zones

Rabi crops are cultivated in the winter season (October–November sowing, March–April harvest) under receding soil moisture conditions. Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is the primary rabi food grain and the second most important crop in India after rice. The wheat belt spans the Indo-Gangetic Plains — Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh collectively account for approximately 85–90% of India's wheat output. Wheat requires cool winters (10–15°C at sowing, 20–25°C at harvest), well-distributed rainfall or irrigation, and well-drained loamy soils. The Green Revolution (1960s–70s) transformed India from a wheat-deficit country to a self-sufficient one through HYV (High Yielding Variety) seeds, chemical fertilisers, and expanded irrigation.

  • Top wheat-producing states: Uttar Pradesh (largest by area), Punjab (highest productivity per hectare), Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan.
  • India's wheat yields: approximately 3.2–3.5 tonnes per hectare (global leader for non-irrigated: Australia; irrigated high yields: Netherlands).
  • Wheat is primarily a rabi crop; approximately 97% of India's wheat area is irrigated.
  • India is the world's second-largest wheat producer (after China) and the second-largest consumer.
  • The 2025–26 record estimate builds on consistent output growth: from 107 MT (2021–22) to 113 MT (2022–23) to 117 MT (2023–24) to 118 MT (2024–25) to 120.21 MT (2025–26 estimate).

Connection to this news: The record 120.21 MT projection reflects favourable agro-climatic conditions in the key growing belt (no early heatwaves during grain-filling in March–April), expanded sowing area, and improved seed varieties — the same factors that, when reversed (as in 2021–22 heatwaves), trigger production shocks and price spikes.

Minimum Support Price (MSP) and Agricultural Price Policy

The Minimum Support Price (MSP) is a guaranteed floor price announced by the Central Government for 23 crops (14 kharif, 6 rabi, and others including jute and copra). MSP is recommended by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) and approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA). For wheat, the MSP formula covers cost of cultivation (A2+FL: actual paid-out costs plus imputed value of family labour) with a target return of at least 50% above cost, as announced in the Union Budget 2018–19.

  • Wheat MSP for 2025–26 (marketing season): Rs 2,425 per quintal (raised by Rs 150 from Rs 2,275).
  • Wheat MSP for 2026–27 (marketing season): Rs 2,585 per quintal (raised by Rs 160, approximately 6.59%).
  • CACP: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices — advisory body under Ministry of Agriculture.
  • CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs — approves MSP.
  • MSP covers 23 crops; FCI and state agencies are the primary procurement agencies for wheat and paddy.
  • India's wheat procurement target for 2025–26: approximately 31 million tonnes; the government's wheat stock position remains comfortable.
  • A2+FL: all actual paid-out costs (A2) plus imputed value of family labour (FL) — the benchmark for "cost of production" used in MSP determination.

Connection to this news: Record production at Rs 2,425/quintal MSP creates fiscal pressure — if market prices fall below MSP due to abundant supply, the government must procure at MSP (or face farmer protests), increasing the financial burden on FCI and the food subsidy bill.

Food Security, Buffer Stocks, and the National Food Security Act

India maintains strategic grain reserves (buffer stocks) of wheat and rice in FCI godowns, used for: meeting PDS (Public Distribution System) obligations under the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013; price stabilisation interventions; and export surplus management. The NFSA, 2013 entitles approximately 813.5 million beneficiaries (67% of population) to subsidised grains: 5 kg per person per month of wheat, rice, or coarse grains at prices of Rs 2, Rs 3, and Rs 1 per kg respectively. The Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) extended free food grains (over and above NFSA quotas) since 2020, and was made permanent from January 2024.

  • NFSA, 2013: covers approximately 813.5 million beneficiaries (revised periodically based on census data).
  • NFSA beneficiary categories: Priority Households (PHH) and Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) families.
  • Buffer stock norms (1 January): wheat 138 lakh tonnes; rice 76 lakh tonnes (total 214 LMT).
  • FCI: Food Corporation of India — central procurement and storage agency (established 1965).
  • PMGKAY: free grain scheme made permanent from January 1, 2024; estimated annual cost approximately Rs 2 lakh crore.
  • India's foodgrain self-sufficiency: total food grain output (2025–26 estimate): approximately 340–345 MT.

Connection to this news: The record wheat output strengthens India's food security position — replenishing buffer stocks depleted by PMGKAY distributions, and potentially creating a comfortable export surplus for international wheat trade if global demand supports it.

Key Facts & Data

  • Wheat output 2025–26 (Second Advance Estimate): 120.21 million tonnes (record)
  • Previous record: 117.94 million tonnes (2024–25)
  • Year-on-year growth: approximately 2%
  • Total rabi crop output 2025–26: 174.51 MT (up 3.16% from 169.16 MT in 2024–25)
  • Wheat MSP (2025–26 marketing season): Rs 2,425 per quintal
  • Wheat MSP (2026–27 marketing season): Rs 2,585 per quintal
  • MSP increase (2025–26): Rs 150/quintal (approximately 6.6%)
  • India's rank in global wheat production: second (after China)
  • Top producing states: UP, Punjab, Haryana, MP, Rajasthan
  • NFSA, 2013 coverage: approximately 813.5 million persons (67% of population)
  • FCI buffer stock norm for wheat (as of January 1): 138 lakh tonnes
  • CACP: recommends MSP; CCEA: approves MSP
  • Wheat procurement target 2025–26: approximately 30–31 million tonnes