What Happened
- As US-Israel military strikes on Iran in late February 2026 disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, India's crude oil supply from the Gulf faced immediate uncertainty.
- Russia has emerged as a potential buffer for India's crude oil needs — ships from Russia can reroute supply, though with a transit time of at least one month compared to five days from the Gulf.
- India's LPG supply presents a far more acute vulnerability: approximately 97% of India's LPG imports come from Gulf nations (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia), and unlike crude oil, there is no strategic LPG reserve.
- India imported approximately 2.03 million tonnes of LPG in February 2026, of which around 1.66 million tonnes originated from Gulf producers routed through Hormuz-linked shipping lanes.
- The structural exposure has worsened because India partially unwound its Russia-pivot in 2025 under US tariff pressure, shifting back toward Gulf crude — meaning Hormuz dependence is now higher than at peak Russian import levels.
Static Topic Bridges
India's Energy Import Dependence
India imports approximately 87% of its crude oil requirements, making it one of the most import-dependent large economies in the world. This dependence is projected to rise to 92% by 2035. The top crude suppliers as of 2024 were Russia (36.3%), Iraq (20.5%), Saudi Arabia (13%), and UAE (9%). Any disruption along any of these supply corridors — particularly the Persian Gulf — has immediate macroeconomic consequences including inflation, current account stress, and rupee depreciation.
- India is the world's third-largest oil importer
- 87% crude import dependence (2024); projected 92% by 2035
- Roughly 51% of India's crude oil and 83% of India's LPG pass through Strait of Hormuz-linked routes
- Russian oil share fell to 21.2% in January 2026 — lowest since October 2022 — due to US sanctions and tariff negotiations
Connection to this news: The partial reversal of Russia diversification in 2025 has increased India's Hormuz exposure precisely when the strait faces its most serious threat in decades. Russia's longer shipping time limits its ability to buffer supply disruptions in the short term.
India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Policy
The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Oil Industry Development Board (OIDB) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, manages India's emergency crude stockpiles. Phase I facilities are at Visakhapatnam (1.33 MMT), Mangaluru (1.5 MMT), and Padur, Karnataka (2.5 MMT) — a combined 5.33 million metric tonnes of crude, sufficient for approximately 9.5 days of consumption. Phase II expansion envisages 6.5 MMT additional capacity at Chandikhol, Odisha and an expanded Padur facility on public-private partnership terms.
- Total existing SPR capacity: 5.33 MMT at 3 underground locations
- Coverage: approximately 9.5 days of national consumption
- No strategic LPG reserve exists in India
- Phase II targets: Chandikhol (4 MMT), Padur additional (2.5 MMT) — on PPP mode
Connection to this news: India's SPR can bridge only 9.5 days of crude supply disruption. There is no equivalent LPG buffer, which explains why LPG is considered more vulnerable than crude in the current crisis.
India-Russia Energy Trade
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India rapidly scaled up discounted Russian crude purchases — from under 1% of total imports pre-war to approximately 37% by 2024, making Russia India's largest crude supplier. This pivot delivered significant cost savings to Indian refiners. However, US sanctions on Russian entities (targeting Rosneft and Lukoil) and US-India tariff negotiations in 2025-2026 led India to reduce Russian purchases, with the Russian share falling to 21.2% in January 2026.
- Russia: from <1% of India's crude imports (pre-2022) to 36.3% in 2024
- January 2026: Russia's share fell to 21.2% — a 44-month low in absolute volume terms
- Transit time from Russia to India: approximately one month (vs. five days from Gulf)
- Russia cannot quickly substitute for Gulf supply in a rapid-onset disruption due to logistics lead times
Connection to this news: Russia's potential as a buffer is real but structurally constrained by shipping timelines. Indian refiners must place orders weeks in advance, reducing Russia's effectiveness as a rapid-response substitute.
Key Facts & Data
- India's LPG import dependence: ~67% of domestic requirement imported (up from 47% in 2015)
- Gulf origin share of India's LPG imports: approximately 97%
- India's crude oil import dependence: ~87% (2024)
- ISPRL Phase I capacity: 5.33 MMT (~9.5 days of national consumption)
- ISPRL Phase II planned capacity: additional 6.5 MMT (Chandikhol + Padur, PPP mode)
- Russia's share of India's crude imports: fell from 36.3% (2024) to 21.2% (January 2026)
- Gulf transit time to India: ~5 days; Russia transit time: ~30 days
- Approximately 51% of India's crude and 83% of India's LPG pass through Hormuz-linked routes