IMD launches two AI-enabled advanced weather forecast systems

The India Meteorological Department launched two advanced AI-powered weather forecasting systems on May 12, 2026, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The f...

What Happened

The India Meteorological Department launched two advanced AI-powered weather forecasting systems on May 12, 2026, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The first system — the AI-Enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System — provides probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday, up to four weeks in advance, covering 16 states and over 3,000 sub-districts.
The second system — the High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh — is a pilot service delivering rainfall forecasts at 1 km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance; it is intended to be expanded to other states as observational infrastructure grows.
Both systems are jointly developed by IMD, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
Dissemination of forecasts to farmers will occur through the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare's existing extension network.

Static Topic Bridges

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

IMD is the national meteorological service of India, established in 1875 and functioning under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. It is the principal government agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology.

Established: 1875; headquartered in New Delhi.
Operates under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), formed in 2006.
Runs the MAUSAM (Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System — MMCFS) for seasonal and extended-range prediction using coupled global climate models (CGCMs).
Extended Range Forecast (ERF): provides outlooks for weeks 1–4 using Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) systems anchored in dynamical and statistical techniques.

Connection to this news: The new AI-enabled systems build on IMD's existing ERF framework, adding machine-learning-driven downscaling to produce block-level (sub-district) granularity that older ensemble models could not achieve.

AI Downscaling in Weather Prediction

Downscaling refers to techniques that translate coarse-resolution global climate model outputs into fine-resolution local forecasts. AI-based downscaling uses trained neural networks to learn spatial patterns from high-density observational networks and apply them to model outputs.

The UP system integrates data from Automatic Rain Gauges, Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Doppler Weather Radars, and satellite-based rainfall datasets.
Achieves 1 km spatial resolution — far finer than conventional global models (25–50 km resolution).
Forecast horizon for the UP system: 10 days; for the monsoon advance system: 4 weeks.

Connection to this news: AI downscaling is what makes hyper-local, block-level forecasting operationally viable for the first time in India, enabling sowing advisories tied to specific villages rather than districts.

Extended Range Forecasting and the Monsoon Mission

The National Monsoon Mission (NMM), launched in 2012, was India's flagship program to improve seasonal and extended-range monsoon prediction through coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) is its operational output.

NMM launched in 2012 by MoES; budget of approximately ₹400 crore.
MMCFS uses coupling of atmospheric and ocean general circulation models.
ERF products are issued for weeks 1–4 with temperature, rainfall, and wind anomaly outlooks.
The new AI system complements MMCFS by adding AI-based probabilistic outputs at the block level.

Connection to this news: The two systems launched in 2026 represent the applied, farmer-facing output of over a decade of investment in the National Monsoon Mission's predictive infrastructure.

Agriculture and Weather-Smart Farming Policy

India's Agri-Meteoology Division within IMD issues Agro-Meteorological Advisory Services (AAS) to farmers. The Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme, launched in 2008, disseminates agro-weather advisories to farmers at the block level via text messages in local languages.

GKMS currently covers over 3,000 blocks across the country.
Advisories issued twice weekly; cover crop-specific guidance on sowing, irrigation, fertiliser, and pest management.
The Ministry of Agriculture links weather advisories to the PM-KISAN and Kisan Credit Card beneficiary databases for targeted dissemination.

Connection to this news: The new monsoon advance system plugs directly into the GKMS dissemination backbone, converting probabilistic monsoon-onset forecasts into actionable sowing advisories at the sub-district level — a critical gap for kharif crop planning.

Key Facts & Data

Coverage: 16 states, 3,000+ sub-districts (blocks).
Forecast horizon: Up to 4 weeks (monsoon advance system); 10 days (UP rainfall system).
UP system resolution: 1 km spatial resolution — among the finest operational resolutions globally for a public weather service.
Update cadence: Monsoon advance forecasts released every Wednesday.
Developing institutions: IMD, IITM Pune, NCMRWF.
India's monsoon window: Kharif sowing decisions depend critically on monsoon onset, which varies by 2–3 weeks across the country.
IMD's 2026 seasonal forecast: Below-normal monsoon (90–95% of Long Period Average) predicted for southwest monsoon season 2026.