Russia holds massive drills of nuclear forces as Ukraine steps up drone attacks

Russia launched a three-day exercise involving its nuclear forces, practising the "preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression." The...

What Happened

Russia launched a three-day exercise involving its nuclear forces, practising the "preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression."
The drills involve 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships, and 13 submarines — including eight armed with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
The exercises also practise cooperation with Belarus, which hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia's leadership praised a successful test launch of the new Sarmat ICBM, which is designed to replace ageing Soviet-era nuclear missiles.
The drills come as Ukraine has sharply intensified drone strikes against Russian territory, including a weekend barrage on Moscow's suburbs that caused fatalities and damaged buildings.
The exercises are widely understood as a signal of deterrence and resolve in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war and elevated Western military support to Kyiv.

Static Topic Bridges

Russia's Nuclear Doctrine and the 2024 Threshold Revision

Russia's nuclear doctrine is formally defined in its "Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence." The original 2020 version permitted nuclear use in response to nuclear attack or conventional attacks that threaten "the very existence of the state."

On November 19, 2024, Russia formally approved revised nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear use.
The key change: the new doctrine permits nuclear use when an attack poses a "critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity" of Russia or Belarus — a significantly lower bar than the previous "existential threat" formulation.
A new trigger was introduced: any conventional attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state would be treated as a joint attack by a nuclear power.
Russia also introduced a provision allowing nuclear response to "reliable information on the massive launch of aerospace attack weapons" even before they cross the border.
These changes were explicitly framed as a response to increased Western military assistance to Ukraine.

Connection to this news: The three-day nuclear exercises are a practical demonstration of the revised doctrine — signalling that Russia's nuclear forces are operationally ready and that Moscow is willing to invoke nuclear deterrence rhetoric as a coercive instrument in the Ukraine war.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and Strategic Nuclear Weapons

An intercontinental ballistic missile is a ballistic missile with a minimum range of approximately 5,500 km, designed to deliver nuclear warheads. ICBMs travel through space on a ballistic trajectory and can reach anywhere on Earth in approximately 30 minutes.

The RS-28 Sarmat (NATO designation: Satan II) is Russia's newest heavy liquid-fuelled ICBM, intended to replace the Soviet-era RS-36M Voevoda (Satan). It has a claimed range of over 18,000 km and can carry up to 15 independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).
Russia is one of five nuclear-weapon states recognised under the NPT: the US, Russia, UK, France, and China.
The New START Treaty (2010), which limited US and Russian deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 each, was suspended by Russia in February 2023, removing the last remaining arms control constraint on the US-Russia strategic relationship.
Russia's strategic nuclear triad consists of land-based ICBMs (RS-28 Sarmat, RS-12M Topol variants), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (on Delta-IV and Borei-class submarines), and air-launched cruise missiles (from Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers).

Connection to this news: The drills specifically involved eight nuclear-armed submarines, practising ICBM launch procedures — reflecting all three legs of the nuclear triad. The Sarmat test is a modernisation milestone in Russia's strategic deterrence capability.

Nuclear Deterrence Theory and Escalation Ladders

Nuclear deterrence is the strategic doctrine that nuclear weapons prevent attacks by guaranteeing unacceptable retaliation. The concept of "escalation dominance" refers to a state's ability to threaten a higher level of force at each step of a conflict — compelling an adversary to de-escalate or face worse consequences.

The concept of "mutually assured destruction" (MAD) underpinned Cold War nuclear stability: if both sides would be destroyed in a nuclear exchange, neither would initiate one.
"Escalate to de-escalate" (also called "escalate to win") is a doctrine attributed to Russia's military thinking: the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons to shock an adversary into ending a conventional conflict on terms favourable to Russia.
Tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) differ from strategic nuclear weapons in yield and delivery range; Russia reportedly has approximately 2,000 TNWs, which are not covered by any arms control agreement.
Belarus became the first country since the Soviet Union's dissolution to host Russian nuclear weapons when Russia began stationing tactical nuclear weapons there in 2023.

Connection to this news: Russia's large-scale nuclear drills, emphasising "preparation and use under threat of aggression," closely tracks the "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine — a signal to Ukraine and its Western supporters that continued military pressure carries nuclear risk.

Drone Warfare and Its Strategic Evolution

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones have transformed modern warfare, enabling long-range precision strikes at relatively low cost. Ukraine has become a global proving ground for drone tactics at scale, employing First-Person View (FPV) drones for tactical operations and longer-range strike drones for strategic targets inside Russia.

Ukraine has used domestically produced Shahed-like drones and longer-range systems to strike oil refineries, airfields, and military-industrial infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.
Russia has also employed Iranian-origin Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones extensively against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Drone attacks on Moscow — Russia's capital — carry high symbolic and psychological value, demonstrating that the conflict's reach is not limited to the front lines.
The UN Charter (Article 2(4)) prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity of states; both Russia and Ukraine have employed drones in ways that blur established norms of armed conflict.
India has been developing its own drone ecosystem under the Drone Rules 2021 and the Defence Acquisition Procedure, recognising UAVs as a critical emerging capability.

Connection to this news: Ukraine's drone barrages on Moscow's suburbs — causing fatalities and infrastructure damage — were the immediate trigger for the Russian nuclear drills, illustrating how asymmetric drone warfare can provoke responses at the strategic nuclear level.

Key Facts & Data

Scale of Russian nuclear drills: 64,000 troops, 200+ missile launchers, 140+ aircraft, 73 surface warships, 13 submarines (8 nuclear-armed).
Duration of drills: three days, beginning May 19, 2026.
Sarmat ICBM: RS-28, claimed range 18,000+ km, capable of carrying up to 15 MIRVed warheads.
Russia's revised nuclear doctrine: approved November 19, 2024; lowered threshold from "existential threat" to "critical threat to sovereignty/territorial integrity."
New START Treaty: suspended by Russia in February 2023.
Belarus nuclear deployment: Russia began stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023.
Ukraine drone strike on Moscow suburbs: caused 3 fatalities and damage to buildings and industrial facilities in the weekend preceding the drills.
Russia's estimated tactical nuclear weapons stockpile: approximately 2,000 warheads (not subject to any arms control agreement).