After START, need for new stabilising mechanisms

The New START treaty — the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement — expired on February 5, 2026 The expiration removes binding limits on US ...

What Happened

The New START treaty — the last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement — expired on February 5, 2026
The expiration removes binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads for the first time since 1972
Russia suspended participation in New START in February 2023 but stated it would continue abiding by numerical limits as long as the US does the same
The Trump administration has stated that any new nuclear arms control treaty should include China
The UN Secretary-General warned this represents a "grave moment" for international peace and security

Static Topic Bridges

Evolution of Nuclear Arms Control Treaties

The expiration of New START marks the end of a five-decade-long framework of bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and Russia/USSR. Understanding this evolution is essential for UPSC International Relations.

SALT I (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, 1972): First US-Soviet agreement to limit strategic nuclear arsenals, including the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty
SALT II (1979): Set limits on strategic nuclear launchers; signed but never ratified by the US Senate due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, 1987): Eliminated all US and Soviet ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km; the US withdrew in 2019 citing Russian violations
START I (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 1991): First treaty to actually reduce nuclear arsenals — limited each side to 6,000 warheads and 1,600 delivery vehicles; expired 2009
START II (1993): Would have banned MIRVed ICBMs; signed but never entered into force
SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty/Moscow Treaty, 2002): Limited deployed warheads to 1,700-2,200; superseded by New START
New START (2010): Limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers/bombers; extended in 2021 for five years until February 5, 2026

Connection to this news: The expiration of New START leaves no binding legal framework constraining US and Russian nuclear arsenals — a situation without precedent since the beginning of nuclear arms control in 1972, raising risks of a new arms race.

Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles and the Global Nuclear Order

The post-New START environment must be understood in the context of current global nuclear weapons stockpiles and the broader non-proliferation architecture.

Global nuclear warheads (estimated, 2025): approximately 12,100 total
Russia: ~5,580 (largest stockpile)
United States: ~5,044
China: ~500 (rapidly expanding, projected to reach 1,000-1,500 by 2035)
France: ~290
United Kingdom: ~225
Pakistan: ~170
India: ~170
Israel: ~90 (undeclared)
North Korea: ~50
New START limited deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side; total stockpiles (including reserves and retired weapons awaiting dismantlement) are significantly larger
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, 1968): Recognises five Nuclear Weapon States (US, Russia, UK, France, China); India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are outside the NPT
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW, 2021): Bans nuclear weapons outright; none of the nuclear-armed states have signed it
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996): Not yet in force — the US, China, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, and Israel have not ratified

Connection to this news: Without New START, the verification and transparency mechanisms that gave both sides confidence about each other's arsenal levels disappear — increasing the risk of miscalculation and potentially triggering an expansion of nuclear arsenals by multiple states.

India's Nuclear Doctrine and Arms Control Position

India, as a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT, has a distinctive position on nuclear arms control — supporting general disarmament while maintaining its own deterrent.

India's nuclear doctrine (announced 2003): Based on "credible minimum deterrence" and "no first use" (NFU) — India will not initiate a nuclear strike but reserves the right to massive retaliation
India conducted nuclear tests: Pokhran-I (1974, "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion") and Pokhran-II (1998, Operation Shakti — 5 tests)
India's nuclear triad: Land-based (Agni series missiles, range up to 5,000+ km), sea-based (INS Arihant, Arihant-class SSBNs with K-4/K-15 SLBMs), and air-based (Rafale, Mirage-2000, Su-30MKI)
India has consistently called for universal nuclear disarmament — PM Rajiv Gandhi's Action Plan for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World (1988) at the UN General Assembly
India has voluntarily maintained a testing moratorium since 1998
India is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver country (2008 India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement) but not a formal NSG member due to China's block
India's position on New START expiry: India would be affected by a new arms race, particularly if China's arsenal expansion accelerates — China is India's primary strategic competitor

Connection to this news: The expiration of US-Russia arms control could trigger a cascading effect — if China accelerates its nuclear buildup (no longer constrained by even the political pressure of bilateral US-Russia limits), India and Pakistan may face pressure to expand their arsenals, destabilising South Asian strategic stability.

Key Facts & Data

New START expired: February 5, 2026
New START limits: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, 800 deployed/non-deployed launchers per side
Global nuclear warheads: ~12,100 (Russia ~5,580, US ~5,044, China ~500)
China's projected arsenal: 1,000-1,500 warheads by 2035
India's nuclear doctrine: Credible Minimum Deterrence + No First Use
India's nuclear tests: Pokhran-I (1974), Pokhran-II (1998)
INF Treaty: US withdrew in 2019
Nuclear arms control timeline: SALT I (1972) → SALT II (1979) → INF (1987) → START I (1991) → SORT (2002) → New START (2010-2026)
NPT Nuclear Weapon States: US, Russia, UK, France, China
TPNW (Nuclear Ban Treaty): Entered into force 2021; no nuclear-armed state has signed
Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan: 1988 — called for universal nuclear disarmament