Entire NE, barring one or two states, may be out of AFSPA by next year: Shah

A tripartite MoU was signed on June 11, 2026, by the Central Government, Assam, and Nagaland for joint oil and mineral exploration along the disputed Assam-N...

What Happened

A tripartite MoU was signed on June 11, 2026, by the Central Government, Assam, and Nagaland for joint oil and mineral exploration along the disputed Assam-Nagaland border — an area covering more than 1,000 sq km.
The signing ceremony served as the backdrop for a major policy announcement: the Central Government intends to remove AFSPA from most Northeast states within the next year, with only one or two states expected to retain the notification.
Officials cited approximately 80% reduction in violent incidents and an approximately 80% reduction in the geographic area notified as "disturbed" under AFSPA since 2019 as the basis for the planned withdrawal.
Twelve peace pacts have reportedly been signed since 2019 with various armed groups in the region, resulting in large-scale surrenders of weapons and personnel.
The Assam-Nagaland MoU establishes a 50:50 revenue-sharing arrangement for hydrocarbons and minerals found in the disputed border zone, resolving a long-standing barrier to resource utilisation.

Static Topic Bridges

AFSPA — "Disturbed Area" Mechanism and Withdrawal Process

The declaration of a "disturbed area" under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958, is the legal trigger that activates all special powers under the statute. The declaration can be made by the Central Government, the Governor of the state, or the Administrator of a Union Territory. In Naga People's Movement of Human Rights v. Union of India (1997), the Supreme Court held that such declarations must be periodically reviewed (at least once every six months), the state government should be consulted before the Central Government issues a suo-motu declaration, and minimum force must be used. Withdrawal of AFSPA in practice involves rescinding the disturbed area notification under Section 3 — there is no separate legislative action required.

Section 3: Disturbed area declaration; can be issued by Centre, Governor, or UT Administrator
1972 amendment: Expanded power to allow Central Government to declare disturbed areas without state consent (previously only state governments had this power)
Withdrawal of AFSPA = revocation of Section 3 notification, not amendment of the Act itself
States freed from AFSPA historically: Mizoram (1980s), Tripura (2015), Meghalaya (2018)
AFSPA currently in force (as of 2025–26) in parts of: Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh; extended in September 2025 for six months in notified districts

Connection to this news: The planned near-complete withdrawal involves revoking disturbed area notifications for most Northeast states — a purely executive action — underscoring the importance of sustained peace metrics as the legal and political threshold for AFSPA removal.

Peace Accords in Northeast India — Significance and Mechanism

Northeast India has been the site of multiple insurgencies since the 1950s, driven by demands for autonomy, self-determination, and ethnic identity. The Central Government's strategy of negotiated settlements — through Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreements followed by formal peace accords — has progressively demobilised armed groups. Key instruments include the Framework Agreement with NSCN (IM) (2015), Bodo Accord (2020), and several others. SoO agreements are temporary ceasefire arrangements that allow insurgents to live in designated camps while peace talks proceed, and are administered by the Ministry of Home Affairs.

Suspension of Operations (SoO): Temporary ceasefire instrument used in Northeast; groups retain weapons in designated camps
Framework Agreement with NSCN (IM): Signed August 3, 2015 — the major Naga peace framework, though a final accord remains pending as of 2026
Bodo Peace Accord: Signed January 27, 2020, with four Bodo factions; ended decades of armed conflict in Assam's Bodo areas
Approximately 7,000 insurgents are reported to have surrendered since 2014 across Northeast states
Twelve peace pacts reportedly signed since 2019

Connection to this news: The reduction in AFSPA-notified areas and the planned withdrawal are directly presented as the outcome of the peace accord strategy — demonstrating the link between political settlements and the legal status of security legislation.

Cooperative Federalism and Interstate Resource Disputes

The Indian Constitution under the Seventh Schedule treats petroleum resources as a Union List subject (Entry 53), meaning the Centre controls licensing and regulation of exploration. However, interstate boundary disputes — which are not adjudicated by the Supreme Court the same way as Centre-State disputes — can freeze access to resources even when the Centre is willing to grant licenses. The Assam-Nagaland boundary has been a contested issue since Nagaland's creation on December 1, 1963, with periodic violence preventing economic activity in the border belt.

Entry 53, Union List: Petroleum and Natural Gas regulation is a Central subject
Article 131: Supreme Court has original jurisdiction over Centre-State and interstate disputes, but boundary demarcation in the Northeast has not been conclusively settled through litigation
NITI Aayog and the Ministry of Home Affairs have both played coordinating roles in Northeast development planning
The 50:50 sharing arrangement is an executive/policy instrument, not a constitutional provision

Connection to this news: The tripartite MoU demonstrates that cooperative federalism — joint consent and shared benefit — can unlock development that adversarial legal disputes cannot, particularly where boundary resolution is politically sensitive.

Key Facts & Data

AFSPA enacted: 1958; Section 3 (disturbed area), Section 4 (special powers), Section 6 (immunity from prosecution)
Naga People's Movement of Human Rights v. Union of India: November 27, 1997; five-judge Constitution Bench; AFSPA upheld with safeguards
Disturbed area notifications in Northeast (September 2025 extension): nine districts in Nagaland; Tirap, Changlang, Longding in Arunachal Pradesh
States freed from AFSPA: Mizoram (1980s), Tripura (2015), Meghalaya (2018)
Reduction in violent incidents since 2019: approximately 80%
Reduction in AFSPA-notified area since 2019: approximately 80%
Peace pacts signed since 2019: approximately 12
Nagaland statehood: December 1, 1963
Framework Agreement with NSCN (IM): August 3, 2015
Bodo Peace Accord: January 27, 2020
MoU coverage: more than 1,000 sq km along Assam-Nagaland border; 50:50 revenue split