What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first Long Range Forecast on April 13, 2026, predicting below-normal Southwest Monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA of ~880 mm), with a model error of ±5%.
- Global weather agencies have assessed a 62% probability of El Niño conditions developing in the Equatorial Pacific between June and August 2026 — the second half of the southwest monsoon season.
- Crops most at risk are pulses and oilseeds (predominantly rain-fed, grown in semi-arid regions), which could trigger higher import requirements and food inflation.
- A mitigating factor: as of April 2, 2026, all-India reservoir storage stood at 47% of live capacity — above last year's 40% and the 10-year average of 37% — providing a buffer for Rabi irrigation.
- India's agricultural sector faces a "trifecta" of risks: below-normal monsoon, emerging El Niño, and elevated global commodity prices linked to West Asia tensions.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Mechanism
ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westward, raising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Pacific and Indonesia. El Niño events occur when these trade winds weaken or reverse — warm water surges eastward toward the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting the normal Walker Circulation (the east-west atmospheric overturning cell above the Pacific, named after Gilbert Walker who discovered the Southern Oscillation in the early 20th century).
- El Niño: warmer-than-normal SSTs in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific; weakened Walker Circulation.
- La Niña: opposite — cooler-than-normal SSTs in eastern Pacific; stronger Walker Circulation; generally favourable for Indian monsoon.
- ENSO events typically last 9–12 months; classified by intensity (moderate, strong, very strong).
- The 1997-98 El Niño was the strongest of the 20th century — yet India received above-average rainfall that year, demonstrating El Niño's non-deterministic relationship with the Indian monsoon.
- The 2002 drought coincided with a weak-to-moderate El Niño, illustrating that monsoon failures can occur even without a strong El Niño.
Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño is expected to emerge in the second half of the monsoon (August-September), a critical period for kharif crop maturation. IMD's 92% LPA forecast already incorporates this risk.
El Niño's Impact on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)
During El Niño, the Walker Circulation shifts eastward; this produces anomalous subsidence (sinking air) over the Indo-Pacific region, weakening the low-level monsoon circulation that drives rainfall over India. The result is typically reduced or spatially uneven monsoon rainfall. However, the relationship is probabilistic — the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can modulate El Niño's impact.
- Historical correlation: ~60% of strong El Niño years coincide with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
- Drought years caused by El Niño include: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009.
- IMD uses Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and coupled dynamical models for long-range forecasts; forecast is issued in two stages (April and June).
- Below-normal monsoon is defined as seasonal rainfall <90% of LPA; deficient is <75% of LPA. The 2026 forecast of 92% LPA falls in the "below normal" category.
Connection to this news: A 92% LPA forecast in combination with an emerging El Niño elevates the drought risk; IMD's June forecast update will be closely watched as El Niño conditions consolidate.
Kharif Agriculture and Food Security Implications
Kharif crops (sown with the onset of Southwest Monsoon in June-July, harvested in October-November) include rice, maize, cotton, soybean, groundnut, tur (arhar) dal, and other pulses and oilseeds. Over 60% of India's net cultivated area relies on monsoon rainfall, with no irrigation backup. A below-normal monsoon disproportionately affects rain-dependent semi-arid belts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka where pulses and oilseeds are concentrated.
- India is the world's largest importer of edible oils; domestic oilseed shortfall typically results in higher palm oil, sunflower oil imports, and pass-through to retail food prices.
- Pulses import dependence: India imports significant quantities of tur, urad, and masoor dal when domestic output falls.
- A 1% shortfall in monsoon can reduce kharif foodgrain output by approximately 0.5-1% (historical estimate).
- Government response tools: buffer stock releases (FCI), import duty reductions, export restrictions, and MSP-based procurement.
Connection to this news: If El Niño suppresses the 2026 kharif season as projected, India faces the dual pressure of higher edible oil and pulse import bills simultaneously — a significant food inflation risk heading into FY2027.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD Long Range Forecast (April 13, 2026): Southwest Monsoon 2026 at 92% of LPA (below normal)
- Model error: ±5%; LPA of Southwest Monsoon: ~880 mm over June–September
- El Niño probability (June–August 2026): 62% (global weather agencies)
- All-India reservoir storage (April 2, 2026): 47% of live capacity (vs. 40% last year, 10-yr avg 37%)
- Over 60% of Indian farmers depend solely on monsoon for kharif cropping
- Below-normal threshold: <90% of LPA; Deficient: <75% of LPA
- Major at-risk crops: pulses (tur, urad, moong), oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton
- India: world's largest edible oil importer; domestic oilseed shortfall directly inflates import bill
- Historical El Niño-drought links: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009
- IMD issues second long-range forecast update in June (when El Niño status becomes clearer)