El Niño emerges in Pacific, raising heat risks and crop threats

The first El Niño event since 2023 has emerged in the Pacific Ocean in 2026, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacif...

What Happened

The first El Niño event since 2023 has emerged in the Pacific Ocean in 2026, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rising rapidly above the threshold for El Niño declaration.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) places an 80% probability on El Niño conditions persisting through June–August 2026, with the event likely intensifying and continuing through at least November 2026 into early 2027.
The event is developing unusually fast; some projections suggest it could rival the strongest El Niño events on record, with SST anomalies potentially exceeding +2.0°C in the central equatorial Pacific.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected the 2026 Southwest Monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 35% probability of a deficient monsoon season — more than double the historical baseline of ~16%.
Global risks include intensified droughts across South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa; above-normal rainfall and flooding in South America and the Horn of Africa; and elevated global food commodity prices due to crop stress.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Mechanism and Phases

ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that alternates between three phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and neutral. It is the single largest source of year-to-year natural climate variability on the planet, affecting rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather across most of the globe.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow westward along the equator, pushing warm surface water into the western Pacific (near Indonesia/Australia) and causing upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador.
During El Niño, trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing the warm water pool to spread eastward across the central and eastern Pacific. This suppresses upwelling and raises SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W) by more than 0.5°C for at least five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
During La Niña, trade winds strengthen, amplifying the normal pattern — warmer western Pacific, colder eastern Pacific — with opposite climatic effects.
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric pressure see-saw between the eastern Pacific (Tahiti) and the western Pacific (Darwin, Australia), measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). El Niño corresponds to a negative SOI.
ENSO cycles typically recur every 2–7 years and last 9–12 months, though major events can persist for 18 months or more.

Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño is following the classic mechanism — warming equatorial Pacific SSTs, weakening trade winds — and is now strong enough to affect monsoon moisture delivery to the Indian subcontinent.

El Niño and the Indian Southwest Monsoon

The Southwest (SW) Monsoon (June–September) delivers approximately 70–75% of India's annual rainfall and is the lifeline of Indian agriculture, supporting over 50% of cultivated area that remains rain-fed. El Niño events statistically suppress the SW monsoon by weakening the temperature and pressure gradients that drive moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean toward the subcontinent.

The teleconnection works through the Walker Circulation: El Niño shifts the rising limb of the Walker Circulation eastward, suppressing convection over the Indian Ocean and the subcontinent.
Historical data shows that out of 26 El Niño events since 1871, approximately 17 (65%) were associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall over India.
However, El Niño is not deterministic: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partially counteract its suppressing effect. The 1997 super El Niño did not cause a drought in India partly due to a strongly positive IOD.
A "deficient monsoon" is defined by IMD as rainfall below 90% of LPA (Long Period Average of ~87 cm for June–September).
The IMD 2026 forecast of 92% LPA, with a 35% deficit probability, reflects heightened risk but not certainty.

Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño directly threatens India's kharif crop season (sown June–September), with deficient rains potentially reducing yields of rice, pulses, cotton, oilseeds, and sugarcane, triggering food inflation and rural distress.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as a Counteracting Force

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the Indian Ocean's equivalent of ENSO — a periodic warming or cooling of the western Indian Ocean relative to the eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD (warm west, cool east) strengthens moisture inflow into India and can partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect on the monsoon.

A positive IOD increases the sea-land temperature gradient between the warm Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal and the Indian landmass, enhancing monsoon circulation.
The IOD is measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI): the difference in SST anomalies between the western pole (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and the eastern pole (90°E–110°E, 10°S–0°N).
The 2019 positive IOD helped offset a weak El Niño, resulting in above-normal rainfall for India in the second half of the monsoon season.
Current IOD state (2026) is being monitored; if neutral or negative, it would amplify the El Niño-induced suppression of the monsoon.

Connection to this news: The severity of the 2026 El Niño's impact on India's monsoon will depend critically on whether a positive IOD develops — a key variable for UPSC questions linking ENSO, IOD, and Indian agriculture.

El Niño and Global Food Security

El Niño disrupts agricultural production across multiple continents simultaneously — a systemic risk to global food security that affects commodity prices, inflation, and food import bills for net food-importing nations.

Major El Niño events cause drought in Australia (wheat, barley), southern Africa (maize, sorghum), India and Southeast Asia (rice, sugarcane), and parts of Brazil (coffee, soy).
Simultaneously, El Niño brings above-normal rainfall to the Pampas (Argentina/Brazil), which can boost some soy and corn yields in South America — providing partial compensation.
The 2015–16 El Niño was linked to a spike in food insecurity in 60 million people across sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, according to the UN FAO.
India is the world's largest rice exporter; any significant kharif shortfall raises global rice prices and affects food-importing developing nations.
India's National Food Security Act (2013) covers 81.35 crore beneficiaries; a crop shortfall would increase fiscal pressure on food subsidy programmes.

Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño's simultaneous threats to crops across South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa make it a global food security event, not merely a regional weather anomaly.

Key Facts & Data

WMO El Niño probability (June–August 2026): 80%; probability of continuation through November 2026: near or above 90%.
Last El Niño event before 2026: 2023.
El Niño SST threshold: Niño 3.4 region anomaly above +0.5°C for at least five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
Potential 2026 SST anomaly: may exceed +2.0°C in central equatorial Pacific (super El Niño threshold).
IMD 2026 SW Monsoon forecast: 92% of LPA (Long Period Average ~87 cm, June–September).
Probability of deficient monsoon (below 90% LPA) in 2026: 35% (vs. historical baseline ~16%).
Historical El Niño–monsoon correlation: ~65% of El Niño years associated with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
India's kharif crops at risk: rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane.
ENSO cycle frequency: typically every 2–7 years; events last 9–12 months on average.
IOD positive phase can counteract El Niño; 1997 super El Niño did not cause Indian drought due to positive IOD.