El Nino spells trouble for kharif harvests across India

A study by scientists at the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research (ICAR-IIFSR), led by Subash N. Pillai, finds that El Niño events have consiste...

What Happened

A study by scientists at the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research (ICAR-IIFSR), led by Subash N. Pillai, finds that El Niño events have consistently reduced yields of major kharif crops in India.
Paddy output fell by over 10% in 77 districts during El Niño years; maize production declined similarly in 65 districts.
The study underscores systemic vulnerability of India's rain-dependent kharif agriculture to ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) variability.
The findings have heightened concern given that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center places the probability of El Niño emergence at 61–62% for May–July 2026, persisting into 2026–27 at 72–80%.
Rainfed agriculture accounts for 51% of India's net sown area and contributes nearly 40% of total food production — making kharif yields a key determinant of food security and rural incomes.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — Mechanism and India Linkage

El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO climate cycle, characterised by anomalous warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This disrupts the Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric circulation over the tropics — weakening the trade winds that drive moisture-laden air toward the Indian subcontinent. The result is typically a weakened Indian Summer Monsoon (June–September), producing below-normal rainfall and spatially uneven distribution across India.

The Indian Summer Monsoon delivers approximately 75–80% of India's annual precipitation during the June–September period. Even moderate deficits (10–15% below Long Period Average) significantly stress kharif crop production. Historically, 8 of the 14 major droughts in India since independence have been associated with El Niño years.

Long Period Average (LPA) of Indian monsoon rainfall: 87 cm (as defined by IMD; revised baseline from 88 cm using 1971–2020 data).
El Niño warming threshold: sea surface temperature anomaly ≥ +0.5°C in Niño 3.4 region for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
La Niña (cold phase of ENSO): generally associated with above-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
IMD categorises monsoon years as: Normal (96–104% of LPA), Excess (>104%), Deficient (90–96%), and Large Deficient (<90%).
Major El Niño years with Indian drought: 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1987–88, 2002–03, 2009–10, 2014–15.

Connection to this news: The ICAR-IIFSR study quantifies what was previously known qualitatively — that El Niño episodes translate into measurable, district-level crop yield losses, providing policymakers with a science-based early-warning framework.

Kharif Agriculture — Cropping Pattern and Economic Significance

Kharif crops are sown with the onset of the southwest monsoon (typically June) and harvested after the monsoon withdraws (October–November). They require warm temperatures and rainfall during the growing season. Major kharif crops include: rice (paddy), maize, jowar (sorghum), bajra (pearl millet), cotton, soybean, groundnut, sugarcane, and pulses (tur/arhar, moong, urad).

Rice (paddy) is India's most important staple crop, grown predominantly in high-rainfall states (West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh). Maize is the third-most-produced cereal globally and a critical kharif crop in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, and the northeastern states. Both are highly sensitive to monsoon timing, quantum, and spatial distribution.

India's food grain production (2023-24): approximately 322 million tonnes (all crops combined).
Share of kharif in total food grain: approximately 51–53%.
Paddy MSP (2025-26): ₹2,300 per quintal for common variety (announced under CACP recommendations).
Net sown area in India: ~140 million hectares; rainfed area: ~71 million hectares (51%).
ICAR-IIFSR: Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research, Modipuram (Meerut, UP); under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare.
Paddy yield decline in ICAR study: >10% in 77 districts during El Niño years.
Maize yield decline in ICAR study: similar decline in 65 districts during El Niño years.

Connection to this news: The district-level granularity of the ICAR study enables targeted government interventions — drought-resistant variety deployment, insurance triggers under PMFBY, and procurement buffers — precisely in the 77 paddy and 65 maize districts most exposed to El Niño risk.

ICAR — Institutional Role in Agricultural Research

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) is an autonomous body under the Department of Agricultural Research and Education (DARE), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. Established in 1929, ICAR coordinates, guides, and manages research, education, and extension in agriculture and allied sciences. It operates 113 institutes and 73 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) across India. ICAR-IIFSR (Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research), Modipuram, focuses on integrated farming systems to improve productivity and sustainability across diverse agro-climatic zones.

ICAR established: 16 July 1929, headquartered in New Delhi.
Number of ICAR institutes: 113 national institutions + research centres.
ICAR-IIFSR location: Modipuram, Meerut, Uttar Pradesh.
Parent ministry: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare; under DARE.
India has 15 agro-climatic zones (as defined by the Planning Commission / ICAR classification).

Connection to this news: ICAR-IIFSR's mandate to study integrated farming systems makes it the appropriate institution to assess systemic climate risks — such as ENSO impacts — across multiple crops and districts simultaneously.

Agricultural Risk Management — PMFBY and Price Support Mechanisms

India manages kharif crop risk through several policy instruments:

Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), 2016: Provides comprehensive crop insurance at low premium (2% for kharif, 1.5% for rabi) with the balance borne by the Centre and state governments. Covers pre-sowing to post-harvest losses including cyclone and unseasonal rain.
Minimum Support Price (MSP): Announced by Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) based on Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) recommendations; covers 23 crops including all major kharif crops.
Buffer Stock and Price Stabilisation Fund (PSF): Maintained by Food Corporation of India (FCI) for rice and wheat; enables government to intervene in markets when production falls.
National Food Security Act, 2013: Legally mandates subsidised food grain to ~67% of India's population (75% rural, 50% urban) — making domestic production shortfalls a food security risk beyond just agriculture economics.

PMFBY launched: 2016; replaced the earlier NAIS and MNAIS schemes.
PMFBY premium for kharif crops: 2% of sum insured (farmer share); balance subsidised.
MSP covers: 14 kharif crops, 6 rabi crops, and 2 commercial crops (sugarcane via FRP).
FCI buffer stock norms: Central Government maintains operational and strategic reserves for rice and wheat.
NFSA 2013: covers approximately 813 million beneficiaries (as of 2022 data).

Connection to this news: El Niño-induced kharif losses in 77 paddy and 65 maize districts would trigger PMFBY payouts and MSP procurement pressure simultaneously — a fiscal scenario that warrants advance preparation by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Key Facts & Data

Study: ICAR-IIFSR (Modipuram, UP); lead researcher: Subash N. Pillai.
Paddy yield decline: over 10% in 77 Indian districts during El Niño years.
Maize yield decline: similar (over 10%) in 65 Indian districts during El Niño years.
El Niño probability (NOAA, 2026): 61–62% for May–July 2026; 72–80% persistence through 2026–27.
India's LPA monsoon rainfall: 87 cm (June–September).
Rainfed agriculture: 51% of net sown area; ~40% of total food production.
India kharif share of food grains: ~51–53% of total annual production.
PMFBY premium (farmer share, kharif): 2% of sum insured.
MSP for paddy (2025-26): ₹2,300 per quintal (common variety).
ICAR established: 1929; 113 national institutes under its umbrella.
Major El Niño drought years in India since independence: 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15.
India's total food grain production (2023-24): ~322 million tonnes.