Most models predict El Nino may last until January 2027: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that most global climate models predict El Niño conditions will persist until January 2027, making the 2...

What Happened

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that most global climate models predict El Niño conditions will persist until January 2027, making the 2026 event one of the most protracted in recent years.
The southwest monsoon is forecast to set in over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around 14–16 May 2026 — close to the normal date — but the overall season rainfall is projected at 92% of the Long Period Average, qualifying as below normal.
El Niño is expected to develop during the early phase of the 2026 southwest monsoon and intensify progressively, with the August–September period — critical for standing kharif crops — facing the highest risk of deficient rainfall.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Mechanism and Classification

ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon driven by variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific. During El Niño, the eastern equatorial Pacific warms anomalously, weakening the Walker Circulation and shifting moisture and convective activity away from the Indian Ocean region. IMD classifies ENSO phases as El Niño, La Niña, or ENSO-neutral, with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — a 3-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°W–170°W) — as the primary metric. A sustained ONI above +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping seasons constitutes an El Niño event.

La Niña conditions prevailed in early 2026; transition to ENSO-neutral occurred by April–June 2026 as per IMD's assessment.
Most models predict El Niño conditions (ONI above +0.5°C) will develop by the June–August 2026 period and peak during October–December 2026 to January 2027.
The October–December (OND) and November–December–January (NDJ) windows show the highest probabilities for strong El Niño intensification.
India's southwest monsoon has a historically documented negative correlation with El Niño: out of 26 El Niño years since 1951, 14 had below-normal or deficient monsoon rainfall.

Connection to this news: IMD's projection that El Niño will persist until January 2027 means both the 2026 kharif season (June–September) and the early phase of the 2026–27 rabi season could be affected.

Southwest Monsoon Onset: Normal Dates and Significance

The southwest monsoon (SWM) is India's primary agricultural and hydrological lifeline, contributing approximately 75% of the country's annual rainfall. IMD tracks its onset in stages: it first arrives over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (normal date: around 20 May), then advances to Kerala (normal date: 1 June), and progressively covers the entire country by mid-July. Delays in monsoon onset are closely watched because a late onset compresses the kharif sowing window. The 2026 monsoon's onset over the Andamans is forecast around 14–16 May — slightly early by historical standards — but early arrival in the Andamans does not guarantee timely advancement over the mainland.

The southwest monsoon normally covers Kerala by 1 June and the entire country by 15 July.
Approximately 60% of India's farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for kharif crop irrigation.
Major kharif crops: paddy (rice), pulses, oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton, maize, and sugarcane.
The second half of the monsoon (August–September) is most critical for water-intensive standing crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds — and this is when El Niño's suppressive effect is expected to peak.

Connection to this news: The article highlights that while monsoon onset may be timely, the progressive weakening through August–September due to El Niño poses a double risk — false early confidence followed by deficit in the critical cropping phase.

Kharif and Rabi Agricultural Seasons: Stakes and Resilience

India follows a biannual cropping cycle: the kharif season (sown June–July, harvested September–October) is rain-fed and directly dependent on the southwest monsoon; the rabi season (sown October–November, harvested March–April) depends on winter rains from western disturbances and residual soil moisture from the monsoon. El Niño's impact is primarily on kharif, but a deficit monsoon also reduces reservoir and groundwater recharge, indirectly threatening rabi crops that depend on irrigation from stored water.

Rabi 2025–26 output is estimated at 3.2% higher than the previous year, providing a buffer against potential kharif losses.
Reservoir storage across India stood at approximately 127% of normal levels at the start of the 2026 monsoon season — a significant mitigating factor.
However, two consecutive years of above-normal rainfall (2024, 2025) may create false confidence; kharif 2026 is not insulated from a below-normal monsoon.
Food inflation is a key policy risk: a deficient monsoon reduces supply of pulses, vegetables, and oilseeds, which have limited import substitution options.

Connection to this news: Strong rabi output and high reservoir levels provide resilience, but a protracted El Niño through January 2027 means policymakers must prepare contingency plans for kharif crop support.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as a Mitigating Factor

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon characterised by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western (Arabian Sea) and eastern (Bay of Bengal/Indonesia) Indian Ocean. A positive IOD event — warmer western Indian Ocean — tends to favour above-normal monsoon rainfall over India and can partially counteract El Niño's suppressive effect. IMD's 2026 forecast anticipates positive IOD conditions developing by the end of the southwest monsoon season, which may provide some relief in September–October.

IOD is measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI): the SST difference between the western Indian Ocean (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and southeastern Indian Ocean (90°E–110°E, 10°S–0°N).
The IOD is independent of ENSO but can modulate its impact; 2019 was a notable year when a strongly positive IOD offset a moderate El Niño.
Below-normal northern hemisphere snow cover in 2026 historically correlates with improved monsoon performance.

Connection to this news: A developing positive IOD could reduce — but not eliminate — El Niño-induced monsoon deficits, particularly in September, offering a partial safety valve for standing kharif crops.

Key Facts & Data

Most global climate models predict El Niño conditions will persist until January 2027.
IMD's 2026 southwest monsoon forecast: 92% of Long Period Average (~800 mm), with model error of ±5%.
Probability breakdown: 35% deficient (below 90% LPA), 31% below normal (90–95%), 27% normal, 7% above normal or excess.
Monsoon onset over Andaman and Nicobar Islands forecast around 14–16 May 2026 (normal ~20 May).
El Niño expected to develop during early monsoon (June–July) and intensify through August–September.
Strongest El Niño probabilities forecast for the October–December 2026 and November–January 2027 periods.
60% of Indian farmers depend entirely on monsoon for kharif irrigation.
Reservoir storage at ~127% of normal as of start of monsoon season 2026 — key buffer.
Rabi 2025–26 output estimated 3.2% higher than previous year.
Positive IOD conditions expected by end of monsoon season, partially offsetting El Niño impact.
India's Long Period Average (LPA) for southwest monsoon rainfall is approximately 880 mm.