Govt says El Nino threat to agri sector manageable due to better irrigation and reserves
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on 13 April 2026, predicting below-normal rainf...
What Happened
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on 13 April 2026, predicting below-normal rainfall at approximately 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — the first below-normal forecast in IMD's April projection in 11 years.
- The primary driver identified is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season (August–September), when standing Kharif crops are at their most water-intensive stage.
- The probability of deficient rainfall (below 90% LPA) stands at 35%; the probability of below-normal rainfall (90–95% LPA) is 31%.
- The government has stated the threat to the agricultural sector remains manageable, citing expanded irrigation coverage, adequate food grain reserves, and improved contingency planning mechanisms.
Static Topic Bridges
El Niño and the ENSO Cycle
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with atmospheric pressure changes (Southern Oscillation Index).
- El Niño (Spanish: "The Boy/Christ Child") — warming of equatorial Pacific SSTs → weakens Walker Circulation → suppresses Indian monsoon
- La Niña ("The Girl") — cooling of equatorial Pacific SSTs → strengthens Walker Circulation → often enhances Indian monsoon
- ENSO-neutral — neither condition
The mechanism linking El Niño to Indian monsoon suppression: El Niño warming shifts atmospheric convection (uplift) eastward over the Pacific, weakening the moisture-laden westerly flow toward the Indian subcontinent and reducing rainfall over South Asia.
- Of 16 El Niño events since 1950, 9 (56%) depressed India's monsoon rainfall
- El Niño events typically peak in the Northern Hemisphere winter (Dec–Feb) and influence Indian monsoon during June–September
- The 2023 El Niño was one of the strongest in decades, contributing to below-normal rainfall in several parts of India
- ENSO monitoring: NOAA (USA), IMD, and WMO jointly track the ENSO cycle
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can modulate the El Niño effect on Indian monsoon — a positive IOD can partially counteract El Niño's suppressing effect
Connection to this news: The 2026 forecast anticipates El Niño emerging in the Pacific during July–August, with maximum impact on the later stages of the monsoon — exactly when paddy, pulses, and oilseed crops are in critical growth phases.
Long Period Average (LPA) and IMD Forecasting System
The Long Period Average (LPA) is the 50-year average of Southwest Monsoon rainfall for India as a whole, currently set at 87 cm (updated to ~88 cm by IMD for the 1971–2020 period). IMD classifies seasonal monsoon rainfall in five categories:
| Category | % of LPA |
|---|---|
| Excess | ≥ 110% |
| Normal | 96–110% |
| Below Normal | 90–95% |
| Deficient | 75–89% |
| Large Deficient | < 75% |
- IMD issues two Long Range Forecasts (LRF): April (first) and June (updated)
- IMD uses Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and Dynamical Global Climate Models (CGCM/ECMWF) for projections
- LPA is recalculated periodically; the 1971–2020 LPA is ~88 cm for the June–September period
- A 92% LPA forecast falls squarely in the "below normal" category
- Probability of deficient: 35%; below normal: 31%; normal or above: ~34% (2026 forecast)
Connection to this news: The 92% LPA forecast is the headline metric driving agricultural planning. Deficient and below-normal monsoon categories trigger contingency protocols in the Kharif Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) and Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare.
Southwest Monsoon and Indian Agriculture
The Southwest Monsoon (June–September) accounts for about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is the primary source of irrigation for Kharif crops — the summer harvest season (sown June–July, harvested September–October). Key Kharif crops include: rice (paddy), maize, cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, soybean, and pulses.
- ~52% of India's net sown area is rain-fed (not irrigated) — entirely dependent on monsoon
- Kharif season contributes ~44–46% of India's annual foodgrain output
- A 1% deficiency in monsoon rainfall → approximately 0.5–1% reduction in agricultural GDP (IMD/ICAR estimates)
- Key rain-dependent Kharif crops: paddy (rice), tur dal, urad, moong, soybean, groundnut
- Rice cultivation is most vulnerable — requires 900–2,500 mm of water depending on variety
- Irrigated area in India: ~67 million hectares (out of ~142 million ha net sown area)
Connection to this news: The government's claim that irrigation coverage and food reserves make the threat "manageable" reflects the expansion of the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) and the buffer stocks held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI). However, ~52% of cropland remains rain-fed, keeping millions of farmers vulnerable to below-normal monsoon seasons.
Government Preparedness Mechanisms
Several institutional mechanisms exist for managing agricultural risk from monsoon variability:
- Kharif Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG): Joint monitoring by Ministry of Agriculture and IMD, meets weekly during monsoon season
- Food Corporation of India (FCI) buffer stocks: India maintains strategic reserves of rice and wheat — current (2026) buffer stocks are above the minimum buffer norm, providing a food security cushion
- National Rainfed Area Authority (NRAA): Coordinates farming strategies for rain-fed regions
- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): Crop insurance scheme for farmers facing yield losses from natural calamities including drought
- Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY): "Har Khet Ko Pani" (water to every field) and "More Crop Per Drop" (micro-irrigation) — aims to expand irrigation coverage
- National Food Security Act, 2013 (NFSA): Mandates subsidised foodgrain to ~67% of India's population through PDS — buffer stocks are critical to this
Connection to this news: The government's "manageable" assessment rests on improved irrigation (through PMKSY) and adequate FCI buffer stocks. However, the combination of El Niño conditions, a 35% probability of deficient rainfall, and ~52% rain-fed farmland means agricultural income risk and rural distress potential remain significant.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD 2026 monsoon forecast (issued 13 April 2026): 92% of LPA — "below normal" category
- First below-normal April long-range forecast by IMD in 11 years
- El Niño probability: expected to emerge in second half of monsoon (August–September 2026)
- Probability of deficient rainfall (<90% LPA): 35%
- Probability of below-normal (90–95% LPA): 31%
- LPA (Long Period Average) for June–September monsoon: ~88 cm (updated 1971–2020 baseline)
- El Niño has depressed Indian monsoon in 9 of 16 occurrences since 1950
- ~52% of India's net sown area is rain-fed; ~67 million ha is irrigated
- Key Kharif crops at risk: paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton
- Kharif season: sowing June–July; harvest September–October
- Key institutions: IMD (forecast), FCI (buffer stocks), PMFBY (crop insurance), CWWG (monitoring)
- ENSO = El Niño–Southern Oscillation; IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole (modulator)