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Economics May 27, 2026 7 min read Daily brief · #23 of 43

India’s foodgrain production up 5% in 2025-26 crop year

India's total foodgrain production in 2025-26 is estimated at 376.563 million tonnes (MT), an all-time record, representing a 5.3% increase over 357.732 MT i...


What Happened

  • India's total foodgrain production in 2025-26 is estimated at 376.563 million tonnes (MT), an all-time record, representing a 5.3% increase over 357.732 MT in 2024-25, according to the Third Advance Estimates of Major Agricultural Crops released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
  • Rice production reached a new high of 154.024 MT (up from 150.184 MT in 2024-25), while wheat output is estimated at a record 120.657 MT (up from 117.945 MT).
  • Maize production surged to a record 55.093 MT — an increase of 11.684 MT over the previous year — reflecting the fastest growth among major cereals.
  • Total oilseeds production is estimated at 43.059 MT, with rapeseed and mustard at a record 13.768 MT and groundnut at 13.074 MT.
  • ICAR released 339 new crop varieties suited to diverse agro-climatic regions of the country in 2025-26, contributing to the productivity gains.

Static Topic Bridges

Advance Estimates System for Agricultural Production

India's Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare releases a series of advance estimates for major agricultural crops every year to provide early projections of production before harvest data is fully available. There are typically four advance estimates during a crop year (July–June), followed by final estimates. The First Advance Estimate (released around September) covers Kharif crops only; subsequent estimates add Rabi and summer (Zaid) crops. The Third Advance Estimate, which incorporates both Kharif and Rabi seasons, provides the most comprehensive picture before the final estimate is published. These estimates are used for policy decisions on procurement, buffer stock management, export-import policy, and price interventions.

  • Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (under the Directorate of Economics and Statistics).
  • Two main cropping seasons: Kharif (sown June–July, harvested October–November) and Rabi (sown October–November, harvested March–April).
  • Third Advance Estimate includes summer (Zaid) crops, offering near-final picture of the full year's output.

Connection to this news: The Third Advance Estimate released on May 27, 2026 shows India's 2025-26 total foodgrain output at 376.563 MT — the highest in the country's recorded agricultural history — surpassing the previous record of 357.732 MT set in 2024-25.

Minimum Support Price (MSP) and Procurement Mechanism

The Minimum Support Price (MSP) is the floor price at which the government commits to procure agricultural produce from farmers, shielding them from market price crashes. It is recommended annually by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) — a statutory body under the Ministry of Agriculture — and approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA). CACP recommends MSPs for 23 crops: 7 cereals, 5 pulses, 7 oilseeds, and 4 commercial crops. Procurement at MSP is conducted primarily by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) for rice and wheat, and by NAFED (National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation) and state agencies for pulses and oilseeds.

  • CACP recommends MSP; CCEA approves — MSP is an executive decision, not a statutory entitlement (no legal backing as of 2026).
  • FCI procures rice and wheat for the central pool; maintains buffer stocks against prescribed norms.
  • Buffer norms (CCEA-mandated quarterly): As of July 2025, FCI stocks (358 LMT wheat + 377 LMT rice) significantly exceed buffer norms (275 LMT wheat + 135 LMT rice), indicating comfortable food security position.
  • Record production increases pressure on MSP procurement, storage capacity, and buffer stock management.

Connection to this news: Record production of rice (154 MT) and wheat (120.66 MT) will feed into FCI procurement targets, potentially increasing central pool stocks further above buffer norms, raising questions about open-ended procurement policy and storage costs.

Food Corporation of India (FCI) and Buffer Stock Management

Established under the Food Corporations Act, 1964, FCI is the apex statutory body responsible for procurement, storage, preservation, and distribution of foodgrains for the central government. FCI maintains a central pool of rice and wheat procured at MSP, which feeds the PDS and is used for price stabilisation. The CCEA fixes quarterly buffer stock norms (minimum stocks to be maintained for food security and price stabilisation). Excess stocks above buffer norms can be released into the open market under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) to moderate prices.

  • FCI established: 1965 (under Food Corporations Act, 1964); headquartered in New Delhi.
  • Buffer norms are set quarterly (as on April 1, July 1, October 1, January 1).
  • Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS): FCI sells excess grain at pre-fixed prices to moderate food inflation.
  • As of July 2025: FCI and state stocks exceeded 500 lakh tonnes — well above buffer norms.

Connection to this news: Consecutive record harvests (357.73 MT in 2024-25, now 376.56 MT in 2025-26) will reinforce overstocking at FCI, intensifying the debate on procurement reform, storage capacity expansion, and export policy for surplus grains.

Green Revolution and Post-Green Revolution Agricultural Technology

India's first Green Revolution (1960s–1970s), driven by high-yielding variety (HYV) seeds, chemical fertilisers, and irrigation expansion, transformed the country from a chronic food-deficit nation to a grain-surplus one. Wheat production surged under Norman Borlaug's dwarf wheat varieties; rice followed with IR-8 and Jaya varieties. The second phase of agricultural productivity growth, driven by ICAR research, includes development of climate-resilient, high-yielding varieties suited to diverse agro-climatic zones. India has 15 agro-climatic zones (as classified by the Planning Commission) and 20 agro-ecological zones (ICAR). ICAR's mandate includes research, education, and extension in agriculture and allied sciences.

  • ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research): apex statutory body for agricultural research in India, established 1929, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
  • ICAR released 339 new crop varieties in 2025-26 for different agro-climatic regions.
  • Maize's surge (+11.684 MT to 55.093 MT) reflects diversification beyond traditional rice-wheat dominance, driven by demand from poultry, ethanol, and starch industries.
  • India's foodgrain production rose from 251.54 MT in 2015-16 to 376.56 MT in 2025-26 — an increase of ~125 MT in a decade.

Connection to this news: The record 2025-26 harvest is the result of sustained investment in seed technology (339 new ICAR varieties), MSP incentives, and improved irrigation coverage — demonstrating the compounding impact of science-backed agricultural policy.

National Food Security and PDS Linkage

Record foodgrain production directly underpins India's food security architecture. The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013 entitles approximately 81.35 crore persons (75% rural, 50% urban population) to subsidised foodgrains — 5 kg/person/month for Priority Households and 35 kg/household/month for AAY households. The government's ability to sustain free grain distribution under PMGKAY (extended to December 2028) depends on FCI's capacity to maintain the central pool through MSP procurement. Surplus production reduces the fiscal risk of maintaining this entitlement, while also creating strategic reserves that can be deployed during droughts or global supply shocks.

  • NFSA, 2013: Sections 3 and 9 — 5 kg/person/month (PHH); 35 kg/household/month (AAY).
  • PMGKAY (Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana): free grain scheme extended through December 2028.
  • Annual PDS requirement for 81.35 crore beneficiaries: approximately 600+ lakh MT of rice and wheat.
  • Price Stabilisation Fund (PSF): maintained by the government for procurement and offloading of key commodities (pulses, oilseeds, onion, potato) to check price volatility.

Connection to this news: The record 2025-26 harvest strengthens India's ability to sustain its NFSA commitments and PMGKAY entitlements without fiscal strain, while also creating potential for strategic exports and reduced import dependence for pulses and oilseeds.

Key Facts & Data

  • Total foodgrain production 2025-26 (3rd Advance Estimate): 376.563 million tonnes — all-time record
  • Previous record (2024-25): 357.732 million tonnes
  • Year-on-year increase: +18.831 MT (+5.3%)
  • Rice production 2025-26: 154.024 MT (record; up from 150.184 MT)
  • Wheat production 2025-26: 120.657 MT (record; up from 117.945 MT)
  • Maize production 2025-26: 55.093 MT (record; up 11.684 MT — largest single-year cereal gain)
  • Total coarse cereals 2025-26: 74.472 MT
  • Total oilseeds 2025-26: 43.059 MT (groundnut: 13.074 MT; rapeseed/mustard: 13.768 MT record; soybean: 12.596 MT)
  • Pulses: Gram 12.514 MT; Tur 3.592 MT; Lentil 1.762 MT
  • ICAR new varieties released in 2025-26: 339
  • Releasing authority: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
  • Estimate type: Third Advance Estimates of Major Agricultural Crops
  • India's foodgrain production growth (10 years): 251.54 MT (2015-16) → 376.56 MT (2025-26); ~+125 MT in a decade
  • CACP mandate: Recommends MSPs for 23 crops (7 cereals, 5 pulses, 7 oilseeds, 4 commercial crops)
  • FCI buffer stock position (July 2025): Wheat ~358 LMT, Rice ~377 LMT vs norms of 275 LMT and 135 LMT respectively
On this page
  1. What Happened
  2. Static Topic Bridges
  3. Advance Estimates System for Agricultural Production
  4. Minimum Support Price (MSP) and Procurement Mechanism
  5. Food Corporation of India (FCI) and Buffer Stock Management
  6. Green Revolution and Post-Green Revolution Agricultural Technology
  7. National Food Security and PDS Linkage
  8. Key Facts & Data
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