What Happened
- The Bank of Baroda's (BoB) economic research unit flagged that India's agricultural outlook for 2026–27 is threatened by a dual shock: a below-normal monsoon forecast and supply chain disruptions from the West Asia conflict
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 13, 2026 issued its first Long Range Forecast predicting SWM rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — the lowest initial forecast in 25 years
- West Asia conflict disruptions to gas supply affect fertilizer availability: 85% of urea production requires imported LNG as feedstock; ~70% of urea imports and ~41% of DAP imports come from Gulf countries
- The combination threatens both the supply side (lower crop output from deficient rain and fertilizer shortage) and the demand side (rural distress dampening consumption)
- Ratings agency ICRA also warned of a "trifecta" of threats to Indian agriculture: below-normal monsoon, emerging El Niño conditions, and the West Asia war's supply chain disruptions
Static Topic Bridges
Southwest Monsoon — IMD Forecast Methodology and Classification
The Southwest Monsoon (SWM) is India's primary annual precipitation event (June–September), accounting for ~70% of India's annual rainfall. The IMD issues a two-stage Long Range Forecast (LRF): Stage I in April (all-India seasonal forecast) and Stage II in June (updates with more granular regional and monthly forecasts). The IMD classifies monsoon rainfall relative to the Long Period Average (LPA) — the benchmark average computed over 1971–2020, equal to approximately 868.6 mm for the country as a whole.
- IMD classification of SWM seasonal rainfall:
- Excess: >104% of LPA
- Normal: 96–104% of LPA
- Below Normal: 90–95% of LPA
- Deficient: <90% of LPA
- 2026 forecast: 92% of LPA (±5% model error) — classified as "Below Normal"
- Probability distribution: 35% chance of deficient; 31% chance of below normal; 34% combined chance of normal/above normal/excess
- El Niño: Pacific Ocean warming phenomenon that typically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall; expected to develop June–September 2026
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): a positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean) can partially offset El Niño's negative impact on Indian rainfall; IOD expected to turn positive late in the 2026 season
Connection to this news: A 92% LPA forecast, combined with a 35% probability of turning fully deficient, creates significant agricultural uncertainty. Kharif crop sowing (primarily rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton) depends on early and steady monsoon onset — delays or deficient early-season rainfall can irreversibly reduce crop yields.
El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole — Impact Mechanisms on Indian Rainfall
El Niño (ENSO — El Niño-Southern Oscillation) refers to the anomalous warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global atmospheric circulation. India's monsoon is driven by the sea-land temperature differential between the Indian Ocean and the heated Indian subcontinent; El Niño weakens this differential by warming the Pacific, diverting moisture away from the Indian Ocean convection systems.
- El Niño years with deficient Indian monsoon: 1987, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2023 showed significant rainfall reduction
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mechanism: when western Indian Ocean is warmer than eastern (positive IOD), it enhances moisture convergence over India and can partially neutralise El Niño effects — the 2019 season had positive IOD mitigating weak El Niño
- IMD's 2026 assessment: El Niño developing in the second half of the monsoon season (August–September), with positive IOD developing late — limited ability to compensate for El Niño
- Historical data: Out of 27 El Niño years between 1951 and 2023, 17 (63%) had below-normal or deficient monsoon rainfall in India
- 2026 is first below-normal monsoon forecast since 2023
Connection to this news: The El Niño emergence between June and September 2026 is the primary climate driver behind the IMD's below-normal forecast. The positive IOD, expected only late in the season, may partially compensate but is unlikely to fully offset El Niño's suppressive effect on monsoon rainfall.
Fertilizer Supply Chain — India's Import Dependence and West Asia Exposure
India is the world's second-largest consumer of fertilizers and is significantly import-dependent for urea and DAP (di-ammonium phosphate) — the two most important fertilizers for Indian agriculture. The West Asia crisis has disrupted both the feedstock supply (LNG for urea production) and the direct import pipeline.
- Urea: nitrogen fertilizer; India's domestic production depends heavily on imported LNG as feedstock; 85% of urea feedstock is imported LNG
- India's urea imports (2024): ~5.64 million tonnes; ~70% from Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain
- DAP imports (2024): ~4.57 million tonnes; Saudi Arabia accounts for ~41%
- Fertilizer subsidy: India provides massive fertilizer subsidies to keep prices affordable — Budget 2025-26 allocated approximately ₹1.64 lakh crore for fertilizer subsidies
- Key fertilizer importers: IFFCO, KRIBHCO, RCF (Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers) — public sector entities
- Price control: urea prices are controlled by government (currently ₹242/bag of 45 kg); DAP prices are partially controlled
Connection to this news: The Hormuz crisis disrupts the supply of fertilizers precisely during the critical pre-kharif period (April–June) when farmers procure inputs for June–July sowing. A fertilizer shortage or price spike translates directly into higher production costs, reduced application (crop yield loss), and food inflation.
Kharif Agriculture — Crops, Rainfall Dependence, and Economic Significance
Kharif crops are sown in June–July at the onset of the southwest monsoon and harvested in September–October. They account for approximately 50% of India's food grain production. Paddy (rice), maize, bajra, jowar, groundnut, cotton, soybean, sugarcane, and pulses (tur, moong) are major kharif crops.
- Kharif sowing window: mid-June to mid-July (varies by region); onset of monsoon is the trigger
- Key kharif crops by area: rice (~43 million ha), cotton (~12 million ha), groundnut (~5.5 million ha), maize (~9 million ha)
- Normal kharif food grain production (recent years): ~150–160 million tonnes (rice + coarse cereals + pulses)
- Agriculture's share of GDP: approximately 17–18% (FY24); employs ~45% of workforce
- Food inflation linkage: inadequate kharif production raises cereal and vegetable prices; CPI Food has a weight of ~39% in India's headline CPI basket (base year 2012 — due for revision)
- MSP (Minimum Support Price): recommended by CACP (Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices) and approved by Cabinet; set for 23 crops including all major kharif crops
Connection to this news: A below-normal monsoon reduces kharif crop output; simultaneously, West Asia-linked fertilizer supply disruptions increase input costs. The combined effect is a supply-side shock to agricultural production that will translate into higher food prices and rural income stress — testing India's food security architecture and welfare mechanisms.
Key Facts & Data
- IMD 2026 SWM forecast: 92% of LPA (below normal category)
- LPA for India (1971–2020 base): 868.6 mm
- IMD's "below normal" definition: 90–95% of LPA
- Deficient (< 90% LPA) probability in 2026: 35%
- First below-normal forecast since 2023; lowest initial forecast in 25 years
- India's fertilizer import dependence: urea — 70% from Gulf; DAP — 41% from Saudi Arabia
- LNG feedstock for urea production: 85% imported
- West Asia's share of India's fertilizer imports: >45%
- Agriculture's share of India's GDP: ~17–18%
- Agricultural workforce: ~45% of total workforce
- India's kharif food grain production (typical): 150–160 million tonnes/year
- Kharif sowing trigger: onset of southwest monsoon (typically June 1 over Kerala)