Why Iran war, monsoon worries could make 2026 India’s Year of Millets

What Happened

• The convergence of the West Asia (Iran) conflict, fears of a below-normal monsoon, and fertiliser supply disruptions is driving Indian farmers toward millets — low-input, drought-tolerant, climate-resilient crops requiring minimal chemical fertilisers.
• The Strait of Hormuz disruptions caused by the conflict have stalled an estimated one-third of global fertiliser trade (3–4 million tonnes per month), raising fertiliser prices and threatening kharif sowing plans for water-intensive crops like paddy and sugarcane.
• A below-normal monsoon forecast increases irrigation stress on conventional crops, making rainfed millets — which thrive in arid and semi-arid conditions — relatively more attractive for farmers, particularly in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
• 2026 could become a defining year for millet adoption at scale, building on the momentum of the International Year of Millets (IYM) 2023, which India proposed at the United Nations.
• Policy support through improved procurement, MSP revision, and market linkages is required for the shift to be economically viable for farmers at scale.

Static Topic Bridges

Millets — Classification, Nutritional Profile, and Agro-ecological Significance

Millets are a group of small-seeded, warm-season cereal and pseudo-cereal crops collectively classified as coarse grains or nutri-cereals. India's government reclassified millets as "Nutri-Cereals" in 2018 to reflect their nutritional superiority over rice and wheat. Major millets include sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), and finger millet (ragi/mandua); minor millets include foxtail, little millet, kodo, barnyard, and proso. Millets are highly drought-tolerant, require 70% less water than paddy, need minimal fertiliser, and can grow on marginal and degraded soils. They are rich in dietary fibre, protein, iron, calcium, and have a low glycaemic index.

International Year of Millets 2023 — India's Global Initiative

The United Nations General Assembly, through Resolution A/RES/75/263 adopted on March 5, 2021, declared 2023 the International Year of Millets (IYM), following a proposal championed by India. The initiative aimed to raise global awareness of millets' nutritional benefits, their potential for sustainable agriculture, and their role in food and nutrition security. India hosted numerous global millets events, export promotion drives, and chef-to-fork campaigns during 2023. IYM 2023 generated significant diplomatic and market momentum — millets exports, recipes, and brand positioning — that provides the foundation for scaling up millet adoption in 2026.

Strait of Hormuz and India's Fertiliser Supply Vulnerability

The Strait of Hormuz, a 39-km-wide chokepoint between Iran and Oman, is the world's most critical maritime chokepoint for energy and petrochemicals. Approximately 20–21% of global petroleum liquids pass through it. It is also critical for fertiliser trade — urea from Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, and phosphatic/potassic fertilisers from the Gulf region, transit this strait to reach South and Southeast Asian markets. India is heavily dependent on fertiliser imports: urea (from Middle East, China, Russia), di-ammonium phosphate/DAP (from Saudi Arabia's SABIC, Jordan, Morocco), and muriate of potash/MOP (from Canada, Russia, Belarus). Any Hormuz blockade severely disrupts India's fertiliser supply chain ahead of the kharif sowing season (June-September).

Monsoon and Kharif Crop Planning — Climate Risk and Agricultural Decisions

The Southwest Monsoon (June–September) provides approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall and is the lifeline of kharif agriculture (paddy, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, cotton, sugarcane). A below-normal monsoon (rainfall below 90% of the Long Period Average of 868.6 mm) reduces soil moisture, raises irrigation demand, and hits dryland crops hardest. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides monthly and seasonal monsoon forecasts, which directly influence sowing decisions, crop insurance actuarials, and MSP procurement planning. Millets, being rainfed, short-duration, and drought-tolerant crops, are particularly suited to semi-arid kharif zones that receive erratic or sub-normal rainfall.

Key Facts & Data

• India: world's largest millet producer — ~41% of global production
• Millet area under cultivation (2021-22): 121.45 lakh hectares
• Top producing state by area: Rajasthan (43.63 lakh ha); highest productivity: Andhra Pradesh (3,336 kg/ha)
• Top 10 states: ~98% of India's millet production
• Millets require ~70% less water than paddy
• UNGA declared IYM 2023: Resolution A/RES/75/263 (March 5, 2021); proposed by India
• Hormuz disruption: ~1/3 of global fertiliser trade stalled; 3–4 million tonnes/month not reaching markets
• India reclassified millets as "Nutri-Cereals": 2018
• Kharif season: June–September
• IMD Long Period Average rainfall: 868.6 mm; below-normal = below 90% of LPA
• Millet minimum support — bajra MSP (2024-25): ₹2,625/quintal [Unverified for 2025-26]